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New Section Added!: At the conclusion of each weekly publication, you’ll now find insights in collaboration with LevelTen Energy on Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), along with notable developments in the renewable energy market. Stay current on emerging trends, transaction activity, and key news shaping the clean energy landscape.

Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of June 16, 2025

By The Numbers:

  • NG '25 prompt-month NYMEX settled at $3.75 per MMbtu, up $.17/MMbtu, on Monday, June 16.
  • WTI '25 prompt-month crude oil settled at $71.77 per barrel, down $1.21 per barrel on Monday, June 16.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral/Bullish

  • Prompt NYMEX natural gas settled at $3.75 per MMbtu, up $.17/MMbtu on Monday, June 16.
  • The East Coast will see the first summer heat wave through this weekend.
  • The first real summer heat of the season supports the gas market in the near term.
  • LNG exports are up year-over-year by 2.2 Bcf per day -- however, June has seen some routine maintenance at various terminals that have tamped down LNG send-outs in the near term.
  • Storage posted its seventh triple digit injection in a row, the longest consecutive streak of such since 2014.
  • Constellation estimates 3.8 Tcf of storage by the end of October, an amount considered quite adequate for winter.
  • Open war between Israel and Iran has elevated global LNG pricing and there is some modest spill-over of support for U.S. domestic gas prices in that equation.
  • YTD natural gas production is up 3.2 Bcf per day versus the same period last year.
  • While supply is up, demand is up more -- demand across the primary consuming sectors (Power, Res/com, Industrial, LNG exports, exports to Mexico) are up collectively 5.6 Bcf per day.
  • Supply is up.  Demand is up.  
  • The first half of 2025 -- NYMEX settlements averaged $3.55 per MMbtu.
  • The second half of 2025 -- NYMEX settlements averaged $4.06 per MMbtu (as of Monday, June 16).

Crude Oil - Neutral/Bullish

  • NYMEX (WTI) prompt-month crude settled at $71.77, down $1.21 per barrel on Monday June 16.
  • One week ago, NYMEX (WTI) prompt-month crude settled at $65.29/bbl.
  • Crude oil has been elevated by the break out of war between Iran and Israel.
  • The situation geopolitically is very dynamic and has major repercussions for global energy.
  • Thus far, Iran's oil and gas infrastructure has not been targeted -- with some exceptions.
  • Iran's energy assets are certainly at risk.

Economy - Neutral

  • Current unemployment holds at 4.2%.
  • Recent college graduates are experiencing a much higher 6.6% unemployment rate, The Wall Street Journal reports.
  • The Fed will likely stay put on interest rates balancing cooling inflation and the potential for a slower jobs market.
  • President Trump left the G-7 Summit early yesterday amid growing tensions in the Middle East.
  • Consumer sentiment increased in June for the first time in six months.
  • Average 30-year mortgage rates ticked down to 6.84% this week.

Weather - Bullish

  • The eastern heat ridge is coming into better focus.
  • The first heat wave in the east this season presents itself through this weekend.
  • This will result in "significantly above normal" temperatures throughout the weekend.
  • The southern tier will be "normal to above normal."
  • The West will get some relief from well-above-normal temperatures.

Weekly Natural Gas Report:

 
  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending June 12 are 2,707 Bcf; an injection of 109 Bcf was reported for the week ending June 12.
  • Gas inventories are 139 Bcf above the five-year average and 256 Bcf less than the same time last year. 
Values reflect week ending Jun. 13, 2025
Prices reflect week ending Jun. 13, 2025

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were slightly higher over the past week and will likely be this week, as weather takes center stage as things begin to heat-up after a mild start to summer. There was a cooling demand gain in the overnight models as the eastern heat ridge comes into better focus. This trend is likely to continue over the next few days as we approach the onset of our first record-challenging eastern heatwave of the season. This will result in significantly above-normal temperatures across the Midwest and East this weekend into next week.  Power futures were 1% higher on average throughout the 2026-2030 price curve, with the Cal’26 strip -1% lower while the rest of the terms were 1% higher. The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price in West Hub is averaging $34.21/MWh for June thus far, which is -2% lower than last month, but is 10% higher than a year ago for June.
  • EPA Proposes to Repeal All Power Sector GHG Regulation - On 6/11, the EPA Administrator signed a proposal to repeal the GHG rules for new and existing power plants known as the Carbon Pollution Standards (CPS), with the proposed action describing both a primary and alternative option.  The primary proposal seeks to eliminate the basis for all of EPA’s power sector GHG regulations - dating back to the 2015 new source performance standards - by asserting that the sector’s emissions do not “significantly contribute” to the effects of climate change.  Additionally, EPA proposes a more limited, technology-focused approach to repeal many of the requirements established by the CPS, leaving in place efficiency-based emission standards for new gas plants.  A 45-day comment period will begin on the date of the proposal’s publication to the Federal Register.

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were slightly higher over the past week and will likely be this week, as weather takes center stage as things begin to heat-up after a mild start to summer. There was a cooling demand gain in the overnight models as the eastern heat ridge comes into better focus. This trend is likely to continue over the next few days as we approach the onset of our first record-challenging eastern heatwave of the season. This will result in significantly above-normal temperatures across the Midwest and East this weekend into next week.  Power futures were unchanged on average for the 2026-2030 price curve, over the past week, with 2026 pricing -1% lower, 2027 unchanged, and the 2028-2030 terms 1% higher.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price in COMED is averaging $29.12/MWh thus far, which is -1% lower than last month, but 17% higher than a year ago, while in AdHub those prices are averaging $33.18/MWh or 2% higher over the past month and 13% higher year-over-year.  In Michigan, the month-to-date average price is currently 33.37/MWh which is -3% lower than last month but 6% higher than last year, while Ameren is averaging $31.63/MWh so far which is -2% lower than this past May but 6% higher than June of 2024. 
  • MISO Refiles Expedited Interconnection Queue Proposal - MISO filed a revised version of its expedited interconnection queue process known as ERAS or Expedited Resource Addition Study.  MISO asked FERC for approval by 7/22 with an effective date of 8/6 so the first ERAS cycle can begin on 9/2.  Overall, MISO moved toward satisfying the FERC’s concerns by implementing caps, setting a sunset date, and setting aside projects for IPPs (Independent Power Producers) and the restructured states.

Northeast Energy Summary

  • On May 22, the ISO New England declared that the organization expects sufficient supply resources required to meet the region’s peak demand for electricity this summer. Under “typical” weather conditions the forecast is for load to top out at 24,803 MW while “above-average” temperatures could raise that level to 25,886 MW which could tighten margins and require some emergency operational procedures. There is an expected ~29,000 MW of capacity available to handle the elevated load/cooling demand season including imports from NY and Quebec as well as demand response with reduces usage during peak demand periods. Behind-the-meter solar generation can often play a large role on the daily and hourly peak demand as sudden cloud cover quickly increase system demand in the mid- to late-hours of a hot summer's day. The system operator forecasts up to 1,736 MW of photovoltaic electricity can be produced to reduce gross demand. Last summer’s demand peaked on July 16, 2023 at 24,461 MW. The all-time coincident peak demand value in New England occurred on August 2, 2006 when it hit 28,130 MW during an extended heat wave.
  • On June 9th and 10th, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) convened its annual meeting to discuss New York’s anticipated growth in energy demand and the subsequent implications for competitive markets.  Stakeholders engaged in comprehensive discussions concerning energy consumption, market reliability, and the need for additional energy supply to ensure both economic and operational stability.  The event included two panel discussions exploring the rising demands of the tech sector, followed by a panel discussion exploring supplying the new economy.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • Cooler trends dominate the forecasts for the West region this week and into early next week. Except for coastal population centers, we'll still be in an above normal weather pattern this week, including some record challenging heat forecast across portions of the interior West and Rockies late this week. A cooling trough will then begin to dig into the West this weekend, ushering in cooler temperatures from Western Canada down into the Pacific Northwest and interior West. Inland SoCal and the Southwest will also receive a break in the hotter pattern with near normal temperatures. Summer officially begins at the end of this week. The mid-range forecast calls for a long stretch of above normal temperatures across California and the DSW in the latter half of the month. Temperature forecasts point towards a clear divide, with NP15 and the PNW enjoying a stretch of mild weather, while SP15, the DSW and Rockies see warmer than normal temps.
  • California’s natural gas landscape continues to see two contrasting stories, with PG&E system nearly full from a storage perspective as weak demand this spring on the back of below normal temperatures has allowed robust injections. Meanwhile, SoCalGas continues to plow ahead on storage injections with the long-term North Zone maintenance closing quick (reminder: long-term maintenance work is scheduled to begin on July 1 and carry through November 1, 2026, along the North Zone – L4000). SoCalGas has strategically remained unfazed by ongoing Wheeler Zone maintenance, and has turned to other regions, particularly their North Zone to keep molecules flowing. They continue to maximize storage injections, with roughly 0.4 Bcf per day of injections over the previous week. If they can continue this pace for the balance of the month, they would reach roughly 99 Bcf in storage before the North Zone maintenance kicks off, which will bring them close to where they were a year ago. The latter half of the month looks to have demand pick up as temperatures increase, and if this plays out the natural gas generation fleet will likely react and lift gas burns as the need for power puts pressure on the storage pathway mentioned above. Turning the corner from spring to summer brings consistently higher loads and higher fire risk.
  • According to the National Interagency Fire Center’s wildfire outlook, there is “above normal” potential for significant fires across much of California from June through August. It’s difficult to pinpoint when wildfire season begins and how bad blazes could be. In NorCal, wildfire season typically starts in June or July and ends in November, according to the Western Fire Chiefs Association. However, California is “approaching a year-round fire season” as climate change and drought conditions shift environmental norms. Fire season tends to wind down when the state gets enough heavy rainfall to dampen possible fuels such as grass, leaves, etc. Strong Santa Ana winds usually increase in late fall and winter, elongating fire season past the summer, especially for SoCal. These extreme winds and intensely dry conditions can turn the lower half of the state into a matchbox. According to the fire center’s report, Central and Southern CA received “significantly below average precipitation” since the water year began October 1. April was also much drier than normal, the center said, which could lead to more wildfires in the months ahead. 
  • The latter half of June promises more bullish power markets, especially in SP15. With another round of heat inbound for the CAISO, peak load expectations now top out on Wednesday in the 35,700 MW ballpark. It should also be noted that the DSW cities are flipping into full summer mode as the daytime high temperatures are topping triple digits every day while the overnight lows are moving into the 82 – 85o range. Looking at the CAISO day ahead auction results, the mid-day hours are slowly leaving the negative prices behind in SP15 as the power demands are finally extending a need into the natural gas supply stack. Expect both NP15 and SP15 settles to remain steady to stronger through the end of the month given the increasing power demand needs.

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