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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of April 13, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt month natural gas settled at $2.63/MMbtu, down $.02, on Monday April 13.
  • Prompt month (May) crude oil (WTI) settled at $99.08/bbl., down $2.51 on Monday, April 13.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral/Bearish

  • The U.S. natural gas market has been very soft over the past several weeks pursuant to the  fortunate confluence of four dominant features:
  • 1) Low demand seasonality -- typical for this time of year -- weather continues to favor very low demand.
  • 2) Storage -- currently at 1.91 Tcf, more than adequate and a strong start to the injection season is on hand.
  • 3) Record production -- continues on a trajectory near 110 Bcf per day.
  • 4) LNG export capacity is near its maximum.

Crude Oil - Bullish

  • President Trump enacted a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz effective yesterday at 10 a.m. EST.
  • The blockade applies to any ship laden with Iranian bound cargo, in or out of the Persian Gulf.
  • All other shipping can move at their discretion freely.
  • U.S. naval ships crossed the Strait on Saturday.
  • President Trump said that "soon" the U.S. Navy will "clear out" the Strait alluding to the use of mine sweeping vessels.
  • Extreme volatility and bullishness remain.

Economy - Neutral

  • Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, much less than expected despite war impact.
  • Consumer prices rose 3.3% in March as energy prices spiked.
  • Most Fed watchers expect zero movement on interest rates in the near term.
  • The IMF warns of deep global downturn if the war with Iran is prolonged.
  • Sales of existing homes fell 3.6 percent in March to a nine-month low.

Weather - Neutral

  • Above normal temperatures are forecast in the East this week.
  • Above normal in the East gives way to cooler air from Canada over the weekend.
  • The pattern in the Northern tier and the East will feature storminess.
  • Generally, the weather pattern over the eastern two thirds of the countries favors very low energy demand.

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending March 27 are 1,911 Bcf; an injection of 50 Bcf was reported for the week ending April 9. 
Values reflect week ending Apr. 10, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending Apr. 10, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were unchanged on the week, as market participants looked beyond the Iran War risks and concentrated on healthy domestic supply and rapidly diffusing heating demand.  US natural gas futures remained close to a seventeen-month low on Monday.  Over the weekend, we picked up some cooler changes in the weather forecast, but record heat is still on the table in the East this week. This will bring 80s and lower 90s into the forecast from the Mid-Atlantic into parts of the Midwest and South putting some record high temperatures in jeopardy.  The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were unchanged over the week and slightly lower, -1%, on the month.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in West Hub is $43.97/MWh or -8% lower than last month’s final settlement price average.
  • PJM Releases Reliability Procurement Backstop Proposal: PJM kicked off an expedited stakeholder process to receive feedback on a proposal to facilitate bilateral contracting between new data centers and new supply resources followed by a centralized backstop auction for new data center demand without a bilateral supply arrangement.  The expedited stakeholder process to gather feedback on the proposal begins on 4/16 and ends on 5/27 followed by a filing at FERC in June.  The proposal consists of two primary elements: a period of “matchmaking” to facilitate bilateral contracting between new data centers and new supply resources, followed by a centralized backstop auction for new data center demand without a bilateral supply arrangement.  PJM acknowledges that bilateral contracting already exists outside the PJM markets, and that bilateral contracts can facilitate more efficient risk-sharing and tailored cost structures.  PJM states that it included the “matchmaking” step in its proposal to help incentivize bilateral contracts.  Through the RFI, PJM and Charles River Associates (CRA) will seek input from load serving entities, EDCs, large load participants, hyper-scalers, generation developers, demand-side resource aggregators, and state commissions on “matching dimensions” including location, timing, quantity, operation profiles, commercial terms and pricing, credit, and development details.

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were unchanged on the week, as market participants looked beyond the Iran War risks and concentrated on healthy domestic supply and rapidly diffusing heating demand.  US natural gas futures remained close to a seventeen-month low on Monday.  Over the weekend, we picked up some cooler changes in the weather forecast, but record heat is still on the table in the East this week. This will bring 80s and lower 90s into the forecast from the Mid-Atlantic into parts of the Midwest and South putting some record high temperatures in jeopardy.  The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were unchanged over the week and slightly lower, -1%, on the month.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price in COMED is currently averaging $22.55/MWh or -23% lower than March’s final settlement price, while in AdHub that average price for April thus far is $39.57/MWh or -10% lower than last month’s average.  In Michigan, the average price so far is $39.96/MWh or 1% higher than March’s average, while in Ameren that price is $29.22/MWh or -6% lower than March’s final settlement average.
  • PJM Releases Reliability Procurement Backstop Proposal: PJM kicked off an expedited stakeholder process to receive feedback on a proposal to facilitate bilateral contracting between new data centers and new supply resources followed by a centralized backstop auction for new data center demand without a bilateral supply arrangement. The expedited stakeholder process to gather feedback on the proposal begins on 4/16 and ends on 5/27 followed by a filing at FERC in June.  The proposal consists of two primary elements: a period of “matchmaking” to facilitate bilateral contracting between new data centers and new supply resources, followed by a centralized backstop auction for new data center demand without a bilateral supply arrangement.  PJM acknowledges that bilateral contracting already exists outside the PJM markets, and that bilateral contracts can facilitate more efficient risk-sharing and tailored cost structures.  PJM states that it included the “matchmaking” step in its proposal to help incentivize bilateral contracts.  Through the RFI, PJM and Charles River Associates (CRA) will seek input from load serving entities, EDCs, large load participants, hyper-scalers, generation developers, demand-side resource aggregators, and state commissions on “matching dimensions” including location, timing, quantity, operation profiles, commercial terms and pricing, credit, and development details.

Northeast Energy Summary

  • On March 31, the six New England governors released a joint statement in support of both existing nuclear resources and bringing new advanced nuclear into the region.  The statement directs energy officials from each state to work together to explore opportunities to ensure the continued safe, affordable, reliable operation of the existing nuclear facilities in New England by coordinating with ISO-NE, existing facility owners, federal agencies, and other stakeholders.  For new nuclear, the governors direct their state energy offices to coordinate with each other to explore steps to deploy advanced nuclear generation in the states and communities that express a willingness to host the resources.  Additionally, the state energy agencies will look for innovative financing structures, federal funding and financial support opportunities, public-private partnerships, and regulatory designs.
  • The joint statement highlights the importance of ensuring support for nuclear from their host communities.  The states will include community-led approaches to explore appropriate locations for new nuclear development, foster public trust and support through meaningful dialogue, and pay careful attention to concerns surrounding safety, security, siting, disposition of nuclear waste, and costs associated with new nuclear technologies. 
  • Coalition of New York State Legislators Urge PSC to Maintain Current CLCPA Targets - On 3/30, a coalition of eighteen legislators submitted joint comments to the Public Service Commission (PSC) strongly opposing any suspension or modification of the State’s targets under the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA).  The PSC is currently considering whether to convene a hearing regarding the potential suspension of the Renewable Energy Program established by the CLCPA, which sets forth state climate objectives, including achieving 70% renewable electricity by 2030 and a zero-emissions grid by 2040.
  • On 1/6, the Coalition for Safe and Reliable Energy filed a petition requesting that the PSC hold such a hearing, arguing that the Renewable Energy Program hinders “the provision of safe and adequate electric service” and should therefore be suspended.  The Coalition claimed that the program has limited investment in reliable generation, endorsed expensive and problematic renewable resources, and that the statutory goals are unlikely to be achieved within the designated timeframe—thereby impeding service to ratepayers.
  • In response, the coalition of legislators maintained that suspending or delaying the CLCPA targets is legally unfounded and unsound from a policy perspective.  They referenced PSL § 66-p (4), which mandates a significant evidentiary burden, requiring proof of current, tangible harms such as diminished system reliability, increased arrears and disconnections.  The legislators argued that questions regarding the feasibility of meeting the 2030 and 2040 targets fall outside the scope of the statutory standard, noting that neither the PSC nor the courts possess the authority to alter CLCPA requirements; such modifications are the purview of the Legislature and Governor.
  • The legislators further underscored the continued urgency of the climate crisis, especially its disproportionate effects on disadvantaged communities.  According to the legislators, existing challenges in meeting climate objectives arise from implementation deficits rather than legislative overreach, and the appropriate remedy is enhanced execution and resource allocation—not a retreat from established policy.  The coalition urged the PSC to dismiss the petition and reaffirm its commitment to robust enforcement and advancement of the State’s climate legislation.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • Following several weeks of summer temperatures, the West has now transitioned to spring. Across the Western U.S. we are looking at seasonable to cooler than normal temperatures in spots; daytime highs in the 50s will be common up in the Pacific Northwest while 60s and 70s will be common across California and the Desert Southwest. Bottom line, any unseasonable warmth looks unlikely over the next couple of weeks while the longer range models suggest some warm late month/early May trends, although not all that impressive at this time.
  • In the natural gas sector, ample supply and limited seasonal consumption are placing significant downward pressure on prices and infrastructure capacity. PG&E recently signaled that persistent over-deliveries have pushed balancing services to their limit, increasing the probability of High Operational Flow Orders (OFOs) to manage upstream molecules. This glut is exacerbated by the fact that storage facilities are entering the refill season at levels commonly seen during the early days of summer. While SoCal Citygate has maintained some stability in cash trading, the SoCal Border is feeling the weight of excess supply as the Aliso Canyon storage facility begins a maintenance outage that will last through the end of the month. With the LA Basin essentially closed to new injections during this work, surplus gas is being stranded on the pipes. This supply-side congestion, coupled with robust storage levels across the PG&E territory, suggests a near-term market dominated by the need to manage oversupply rather than meeting peak demand.
  • The spring doldrums are upon us. Moderate temperatures means moderate loads and the CAISO day-ahead auction settlements reflect this as SP15 peak prices dipped to -$1.21 per MWh for flow today, while NP15 barely remained positive at $3.58 MWh. This collapse in pricing reflects a midday period where solar influx consistently outstrips net load, tightening the spread between the state's major trading hubs. On the supply side, two factors are providing a slight floor for gas-fired generation: intermittent cloud cover over California and the commencement of Lower Columbia fish spill operations in the Pacific Northwest, which curtails hydro output (meaning water flows over the dam, not through the turbines). However, with the real-time market showing a consistent midday glut and Aliso Canyon maintenance limiting gas flexibility, the system is increasingly reliant on battery discharging and wind generation to balance the stack. As sunshine remains the dominant forecast, the challenge for the Western Interconnect remains managing this energy surplus amid a backdrop of minimal loads and need for power burns.
  • Ongoing skepticism surrounding the Middle East ceasefire and now the U.S. military’s blockade of ships leaving Iran's ports, drawing threatened ‌retaliation from Tehran against its Gulf neighbors, has further complicated market sentiment. While the prospect of de-escalation might typically soften prices, a lack of confidence in the durability of any agreement has kept risk premiums elevated, limiting the extent of downside and contributing to choppy market conditions. You’re the energy expert in your company, keep the risk in your portfolio out of the nearby months and keep your stakeholders informed.

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