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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of November 10, 2025

By The Numbers:

  • Prompt-month NYMEX natural gas settled at $4.33/MMbtu, down $.03 on Monday, November 10.
  • Prompt-month NYMEX natural gas settled at $4.27/MMbtu, one week ago (November 3).
  • Prompt-month crude oil settled at $60.13/bbl, up $.38 on Monday, November 10.
  • Prompt-month crude oil settled at $61.05/bbl., one week ago (November 3).

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral/Bullish

  • Prompt-month (December 2025) natural gas settled at $4.33/MMbtu, down $.03 on Monday, November 10.
  • Year-to-date, the December 2025 gas futures contract has averaged $4.43/MMbtu.
  • Year-to-date, the December 2025 gas futures contract traded at a high of $5.46/MMbtu on March 11 (2025), and a low of $3.64 on October 16.
  • Prospectively, December 2025 is trading below its year-to-date average and well below its year-to-date high.
  • Production remains strong.  Month-to-date gas production averaged 107.7 Bcf per day versus 101.1 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Power generation demand month-to-date averaged 29.8 Bcf per day versus 33.3 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Residential/Commercial demand averaged 25.3 Bcf per day month-to-date versus 18.7 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Industrial demand is flat year-over-year for November at 23.7 Bcf per day.
  • LNG exports month-to-date averaged 17.4 Bcf per day versus 13 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • This week LNG exports broke the 18 Bcf per day level, an all-time high.
  • Exports to Mexico averaged 5.6 Bcf per day month-to-date versus 5.8 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Storage will be very near record-level full.
  • The 2026-2030 strip averaged $3.85 at settlement yesterday; on June 16, the 26-30 strip settled at $3.86.
  • Pricing action will be extremely sensitive to weather forecasts.

Crude Oil - Neutral

  • NYMEX (WTI) prompt-month crude settled at $60.13/bbl., on Monday, up $.38.
  • OPEC continues to increase output.
  • The market is well supplied.
  • U.S. production of crude continues at 13.6 million barrels per day.
  • U.S. crude oil producers are less than happy about oil near $60.
  • Lower crude oil prices are generally bullish of natural gas, all other things being equal.

Economy - Neutral

  • The Wall Street Journal reports that it will be difficult to measure how much the government shut down hurt the U.S. economy noting the effect will likely be temporary but will leave a "data fog at an otherwise uncertain time for the economy."
  • U.S. small business sentiment slides on lower profits, The Wall Street Journal reports.
  • The dollar weakened as U.S. lawmakers moved to end the government shutdown.
  • Economists say job growth has been tepid since September and the unemployment rate could have risen.
  • Home turnover rates are the lowest in 30 years as sellers stay put and the housing slump drags on.
  • New government economic data will be forthcoming over several weeks, but there is not a lot to report on presently.

Weather - Neutral/Bullish

  • A warm up in the lower Midwest and southeast is in store this week after a bout of cold air and below normal temperatures.
  • The Great Lakes region and the east will be chilly in the 6-10 day period with overnight lows in the lower 30s and daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 40s.

Weekly Natural Gas Report:

 
  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending October 31 are 3,915 Bcf; an injection of 33 Bcf was reported for the week ending October 31.
  • Gas inventories are 162 Bcf above the five-year average and 6 Bcf less than the same time last year. 
Values reflect week ending Nov. 7, 2025
Prices reflect week ending Nov. 7 2025

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices have stabilized after experiencing a gradual surge the past few months from the middle of August to the end of October.  Natural gas futures lost momentum during Friday’s session, but the prompt month advanced for the week amid forecasts for wintry cold shots, robust export activity and diminishing concerns about oversupply.  This week starts with cold air in place over the eastern United States with a chilly wind over the next few days that brings lake affect snow to the usual locations. The pattern starts to flip later this week with milder weather moving into the Mid-continent as the West begins to cool below normal.  The East Coast is more variable and continues to struggle with establishing any consistency in the pattern as the main ridge is too far to the west.  Forward power prices for the 2026-2030 terms were 1% higher, on average, week-over-week and 7% higher over the past month.  Most of the increases were seen on the front of the price curve for the 2026/27 terms.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in West Hub is $53.65/MWh, which is 5% higher than last month and 76% higher than a year ago.
  • PJM Completes Stage 3 of Critical Issue Fast Path - Large Load Additions (CIFP-LLA) - On 11/05, PJM presented a high-level summary of the previously-reported directive from Department of Energy Secretary Chris Wright to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to initiate an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANOPR) regarding the interconnection of large loads to the transmission system. PJM solicited input from stakeholders on their views, which largely overlapped with matters already being discussed in the on-going CIFP-LLA process.  On 11/6 and 11/7, PJM completed discussion on the various packages of large load proposals put forth by PJM and its stakeholders, concluding Stage 3 of the CIFP-LLA process. PJM presented its largely unchanged package, which includes updates to load forecasting and a limited, expedited generator interconnection process. PJM clarified that EDCs/LSEs would be required to provide site counts, MW amounts, and a justification for including specific large loads in the PJM load forecast. For the new Expedited Interconnection Track (EIT), PJM added a requirement that eligible generation be both state-sponsored and contractually committed to a large load in an attempt to address queue-jumping concerns. PJM also stated that it is evaluating whether to grant expedited interconnection for certain types of generation not committed to a large load. No changes were made to PJM’s Price Responsive Demand (PRD) proposal, and PJM committed to pursue CIFP reliability enhancements including manual load dump procedures, updates to reliability backstop mechanisms, and consideration of long-term procurement strategies. PJM will provide further guidance on the scope of these changes in the final Stage 4 meeting materials.

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices have stabilized a bit after experiencing a gradual surge the past few months from the middle of August to the end of October.  Natural gas futures lost momentum during Friday’s session, but the prompt month advanced for the week amid forecasts for wintry cold shots, robust export activity and diminishing concerns about oversupply.  This week starts with cold air in place over the eastern United States with a chilly wind over the next few days that brings lake affect snow to the usual locations. The pattern starts to flip later this week with milder weather moving into the Mid-continent as the West begins to cool below normal.  The East Coast is more variable and continues to struggle with establishing any consistency in the pattern as the main ridge is too far to the west.  Forward power prices for the 2026-2030 terms were unchanged over the past week, on average, while over the past month, they were 7% higher.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in COMED is $39.27/MWh, which is 13% higher than last month, while the month-to-date average in AdHub is $49.09/MWh, which is only 1% higher than last month.  In Michigan those same prices, through the month, are averaging $40.12/MWh or are unchanged compared to October, while the prices in Ameren are averaging $34.86/MWh, making them -1% lower than the previous month.  
  • PJM Completes Stage 3 of Critical Issue Fast Path - Large Load Additions (CIFP-LLA) - On 11/05, PJM presented a high-level summary of the previously-reported directive from Department of Energy Secretary Chris Wright to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to initiate an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANOPR) regarding the interconnection of large loads to the transmission system. PJM solicited input from stakeholders on their views, which largely overlapped with matters already being discussed in the on-going CIFP-LLA process.  On 11/6 and 11/7, PJM completed discussion on the various packages of large load proposals put forth by PJM and its stakeholders, concluding Stage 3 of the CIFP-LLA process. PJM presented its largely unchanged package, which includes updates to load forecasting and a limited, expedited generator interconnection process. PJM clarified that EDCs/LSEs would be required to provide site counts, MW amounts, and a justification for including specific large loads in the PJM load forecast. For the new Expedited Interconnection Track (EIT), PJM added a requirement that eligible generation be both state-sponsored and contractually committed to a large load in an attempt to address queue-jumping concerns. PJM also stated that it is evaluating whether to grant expedited interconnection for certain types of generation not committed to a large load. No changes were made to PJM’s Price Responsive Demand (PRD) proposal, and PJM committed to pursue CIFP reliability enhancements including manual load dump procedures, updates to reliability backstop mechanisms, and consideration of long-term procurement strategies. PJM will provide further guidance on the scope of these changes in the final Stage 4 meeting materials.

Northeast Energy Summary

  • On October 28, the Connecticut Public Utilities Regulatory Authority (PURA) issued a Notice of Technical Meeting and a Request for Written Comments in Docket No. 12-06-02RE04, PURA Review of Power Procurement Plan – Amendment Pursuant to Public Act 25-173.  Docket 12-06-02RE04 is examining amendments to the electric distribution companies’ (EDC’s) procurement plans as required by a law passed earlier this year that requires the EDCs to have the ability to make “dynamic market purchases” for 25% of their standard service load.  Dynamic market purchases are defined as energy, capacity, or other market products needed to serve standard service load using market purchases in the ISO-NE markets, financial contracts, or other variable techniques.
  • On October 30, the New York Power Authority (NYPA) released two requests for information (RFIs) as part of its initiative to develop 1 GW of advanced nuclear energy. The first RFI invites upstate New York communities to express interest in hosting an advanced nuclear project developed by NYPA.  The second RFI seeks input from potential development partners with expertise in the development, construction, operation, or servicing of nuclear power facilities. These solicitations follow a directive issued by Governor Kathy Hochul in June to establish a minimum of 1 GW of advanced nuclear capacity in upstate New York.  
  • Public comments were filed on October 20 addressing the New York State Department of Public Service (DPS) staff’s proposal to extend the New York Zero Emissions Credit (ZEC) program. The proposal originates from the PSC’s May order directing DPS staff to submit a whitepaper evaluating how a continued ZEC program should be structured past its expiration in 2029. DPS filed the whitepaper in July, noting the economic and environmental significance of the current nuclear fleet and recommending a 20-year extension with similar rate-setting methodology, adjusted over time for inflation through 2049. Public comments were subsequently solicited to inform the Commission’s pending decision.  Governor Hochul’s administration supports the extension, citing nuclear energy as relevant for meeting state climate targets, while some environmental groups have expressed opposition, favoring investments in renewables and storage instead.  The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) also supports the extension, stating that program cost (approximately $5.5 billion from 2029 to 2050, or $3.3 billion net present value) is outweighed by anticipated ratepayer savings. NYSERDA estimates that electric-system costs would increase by $15 billion if the nuclear plants retire, requiring over 16 gigawatts of new zero-emission generation and storage as replacements.  NYPA supports the extension as well, noting that new renewables reduce emissions at a cost more than six times higher than ZECs. NYPA argues that the current capacity and environmental attributes of existing nuclear generation are not readily replicable by alternative sources.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • Colder trends dominated the forecast for the West coming out of the weekend for the back half of the month. The warm pattern that has been locked in for California over the past couple of weeks will make a swift exit with the most extreme change being the LA Basin’s retreats to the 60s by Friday, a 30° decline from 90s that were seen on Monday. In addition to the significant cooldown, the trough looks to bring heavy rain and mountain snow to the state by the end of the week. The gas market is well prepared for this shift in the direction of winter weather as storage and pipeline capacity are available and have been weighing heavily on basis prices. PG&E city gate and SoCal city gate prices have been sitting at springtime lows and High operational flow order (OFO) notices were back in play. While the upcoming cooler temperatures are not extreme, the clouds that come along with the transition will go far to increase loads during midday hours and inject some optimism in prices for the solar period by lifting heat rates closer to the bottom of the natural gas portion of the supply stack. This will help the dispatch of gas fired generation and alleviate some of the pressure on a gas grid that is swimming in molecules, briefly made worse when Diablo Canyon 2 returned from its maintenance outage last week. For power prices, the flattening of the load shape will reduce the S to N congestion value gap that had been posting well over $20 MWh during peak hours last week, now reduced to about $6 for Tuesday flow.
  • SunZia is starting to appear in the CAISO congestion reports. What’s that? The SunZia Wind and Transmission project, located in New Mexico and Arizona, will be the largest renewable energy project in the Western Hemisphere once complete next year. The project is going through its commissioning stages now and is expected to be fully energized in early 2026. SunZia consists of a 3,650 MW wind farm, the SunZia East alternating current/direct current converter station, a 553 mi 525 kV high-voltage direct current transmission line, the SunZia West DC/AC converter station, and two 500 kV AC tie lines. The wind farm will have 916 turbines, 10 collection substations, 115 mi of overhead collection lines, 130 mi of 345 kV AC generation tie lines, and a switchyard. The HVDC transmission line runs west from Corona, New Mexico, to a converter station near Casa Grande, Arizona. It will eventually be a source of MWh for the CAISO to use as a balancing tool to replace the solar generation that fades away each evening.
  • On Oct 14th, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released an update indicating it would delay the issuing proposed rules for the state’s climate risk disclosure laws, SB 253 and SB 261, until Q1 2026 due to “the large volume of public comments it has received, and given ongoing input related to identifying the range of covered entities.” CARB also issued a projected cost of compliance for the laws and shared the disclosure timeline for companies covered by SB 253 to disclose their Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions for the first time. SB 253 will require U.S. companies doing business in California with over $1B in global annual revenues to disclose their Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions. CARB aims to require Scope 1 and 2 reporting by Jun 30, 2026, and Scope 3 reporting in 2027. SB 261 will require U.S. companies doing business in California with over $500 million in global annual revenues to publish public climate-related financial risk reports on its website and on a CARB database. The deadline for initial reports is set for Jan 1, 2026, and reports must be submitted every two years thereafter.

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