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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of April 20, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt month natural gas traded at $2.68/MMbtu near settlement on Monday, April 20, up $.01.
  • Prompt month crude oil (WTI) traded at $88.58/bbl., up $4.73 near settlement, Monday, April 20.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral/Bearish

  • The weather pattern for the next few weeks features a low-demand scenario for both nascent late-season heating load and for early air-conditioning demand.
  • Storage is more than adequate for this time of year.
  • Production continues at record levels, however, there have been some scheduled maintenance issues on pipelines that have reduced output slightly over the past week.
  • LNG sendout is strong, but current capacity at the nine operating LNG terminals is near its maximum, thereby not allowing for gas to be put to the higher-value LNG market above what is already moving.
  • Near-term pricing action is likely on the muted side relative to low seasonal demand, ample storage, and record production.  

Crude Oil - Bullish

  • On again, off again, on the Strait of Hormuz, but mostly "off again."
  • The U.S. is enforcing its blockade of Iranian shipping via the Strait.
  • A U.S. naval ship fired on and disabled an Iranian cargo vessel that was attempting to run the blockade. U.S. Marines later boarded the vessel and commandeered the crew and cargo.
  • Iran's IRGC issued warnings to all maritime vessels that they would be subject to attack, and two vessels were attacked by Iranian speed-boat operators.
  • Prospects for a second round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are on hold as of Monday afternoon. The cease fire ends on Wednesday.

Economy - Neutral

  • Wholesale inflation rose to 4% in March, its highest level in three years.
  • U.S. importers ranging from Target to Walmart, are due more than $160 billion in tariff refunds following February's Supreme Court decision striking down many of the Trump Administration's levies.
  • U.S. homebuilder sentiment slips in the first quarter.
  • Sales of existing homes have had a rough spring season.
  • Unemployment claims fell last week to 207,000, down from 218,000.
  • Consumer sentiment is low.
  • Factory jobs are down, but factory output has risen briskly, The Wall Street Journal reports. U.S. production to support AI development is rising sharply.

Weather - Neutral

  • Much cooler temperatures have moved into the East and Midwest.
  • The first half of May is now trending cooler, potentially extending what has been a low-demand spring season for energy.
  • Much of the country is very dry with severe drought in the southeast, southwest and large pockets of the mid continent. The drought situation could turn a relatively cool start to May into a very hot summer.

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending April 10 are 1,970 Bcf; an injection of 59 Bcf was reported for the week ending April 10. 
Values reflect week ending Apr. 17, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending Apr. 17, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were unchanged on the week, with some slight support at the back end of the price curve.  US natural gas futures notched a fourth straight session of modest gains, earlier in the week, as traders balanced ample supply against seasonally supportive demand and longer‑term LNG demand growth.  We’ll have a burst of warmth across the eastern U.S. over the next few days—more durable across the South—followed by cooler weather that could average below normal in the 11–15-day period.  The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were unchanged over the week with a -1% decrease for the 2027 term and a 1% increase for the 2028-2030 terms.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average for April, in West Hub, is $50.17/MWh or 5% higher than last month’s final settlement price average.
  • FERC Requires PJM to Correct Co-Located Load Definition - On 12/18/25, FERC issued its Show Cause order on co-located loads that required, among other things, PJM and PJM transmission owners to implement new transmission services to allow faster connections of and more flexible transmission service to co-located loads.  As part of that order, FERC included a definition of Co-Located Load that would broadly consider load connected on the generator’s “side of the Point of Interconnection” as qualifying as Co-Located Load.  Since the new transmission services are available only to loads qualifying as a Co-Located Load, this definition established an important demarcation point among different types of customer configurations.  As part of the Show Cause order, FERC also required a second compliance filing by PJM and a paper hearing on the rates and specific terms of service for the new transmission services.  These aspects of the Show Cause order are under review by FERC

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were slightly higher over the past week, with most of the support at the back end of the price curve.  US natural gas futures notched a fourth straight session of modest gains, earlier in the week, as traders balanced ample supply against seasonally supportive demand and longer‑term LNG demand growth.  We’ll have a burst of warmth across the eastern U.S. over the next few days—more durable across the South—followed by cooler weather that could average below normal in the 11–15-day period.  The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were 1% higher on the week, with the 2027 term unchanged and the 2028-2030 terms 2% higher.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price in COMED is currently averaging $22.99/MWh or -22% lower than March’s preliminary final settlement price, while in AdHub that average price for April thus far is $43.48/MWh or -1% lower than last month’s average.  In Michigan, the average price so far is $40.13/MWh or 1% higher than March’s average, while in Ameren the current settlement average for April is $29.56/MWh or -5% lower than March’s final average price.
  • FERC Requires PJM to Correct Co-Located Load Definition - On 12/18/25, FERC issued its Show Cause order on co-located loads that required, among other things, PJM and PJM transmission owners to implement new transmission services to allow faster connections of and more flexible transmission service to co-located loads.  As part of that order, FERC included a definition of Co-Located Load that would broadly consider load connected on the generator’s “side of the Point of Interconnection” as qualifying as Co-Located Load.  Since the new transmission services are available only to loads qualifying as a Co-Located Load, this definition established an important demarcation point among different types of customer configurations.  As part of the Show Cause order, FERC also required a second compliance filing by PJM and a paper hearing on the rates and specific terms of service for the new transmission services.  These aspects of the Show Cause order are under review by FERC

Northeast Energy Summary

  • On March 31, the six New England governors released a joint statement in support of both existing nuclear resources and bringing new advanced nuclear into the region.  The statement directs energy officials from each state to work together to explore opportunities to ensure the continued safe, affordable, reliable operation of the existing nuclear facilities in New England by coordinating with ISO-NE, existing facility owners, federal agencies, and other stakeholders.  For new nuclear, the governors direct their state energy offices to coordinate with each other to explore steps to deploy advanced nuclear generation in the states and communities that express a willingness to host the resources.  Additionally, the state energy agencies will look for innovative financing structures, federal funding and financial support opportunities, public-private partnerships, and regulatory designs.
  • The joint statement highlights the importance of ensuring support for nuclear from their host communities.  The states will include community-led approaches to explore appropriate locations for new nuclear development, foster public trust and support through meaningful dialogue, and pay careful attention to concerns surrounding safety, security, siting, disposition of nuclear waste, and costs associated with new nuclear technologies. 
  • Last week NYISO posted an updated “Short Term Reliability Process Report (STAR)”, highlighting supply deficiencies and tightening reserve margins throughout the five-year assessment window without the completion and energization of various projects to address reliability needs. Based on the report findings and proposed solutions, NYISO will extend the designation of the Gowanus 2 & 3 and Narrows 1 & 2 generators, as needed to address ongoing reliability needs until May 2029, the maximum permissible permit extension date allowed under the DEC’s peaker rule. Additionally, due to near-term reliability concerns in the Lower Hudson Valley, Danskammer must remain active until at least August 2026, possibly January 2027 if reliability needs persist.
  • On April 13, FERC approved market rules for the 1,250 MW Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) transmission line to commence operations.  It's expected to begin service next month but has not yet submitted its intent to commence market participation in the 2026 May or June Capacity Obligation Procurement Periods.  As a result, NYISO will apply the CHPE-Out ICAP market parameters for the 2026 May and June Obligation Procurement Period for the time being.
  • As far as price trajectory, statewide electricity prices in New York have retreated in this month with the arrival of shoulder season. Day Ahead wholesale power prices have averaged between $32-$42/MWh across zones month-to-date, with Zone A averaging $32.35/MWh, zone G averaging $41.51/MWh, and Zone J averaging $42.45/MWh so far, a month-over-month decrease though prices remain 10-30% above five-year averages.  Despite the Spring lull, volatility is likely to continue in relation to ongoing statewide reliability concerns and broader global volatility, specifically in the Northeast where natural gas remains somewhat constrained.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • A series of incoming storm systems across the Pacific Northwest and California is shifting the regional weather narrative toward a cooling trend this week. While these systems will probably induce some localized heating demand across Western Canada and the Rockies, the broader Pacific flow is expected to maintain a mild temperature profile across the Golden State as we slide into the final third of the month. This atmospheric shift will directly impact the renewable generation stack as solar output is forecast to peak near nameplate capacity today before a significant cut to 50–70% of norm on Wednesday and Friday due to increased cloud cover. Furthermore, wind generation is expected to remain slightly below seasonal norms. Despite recent precipitation, the region's water outlook remains a primary concern; Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) levels are critically low, with California at 23% and Oregon at 15% of normal. Although the April – September water supply forecast at The Dalles remains steady at 95% of average, even some late-season snow this week is unlikely to meaningfully bolster the snowpack ahead of the summer peak. Wildfires this year could be rough.
  • The state’s natural gas market is currently grappling with a significant supply-demand imbalance, characterized by a surplus of "homeless" molecules. Healthy storage levels following a mild winter, coupled with high renewable penetration and new import volumes from the likes of SunZia, have left the system oversupplied during these low load periods. Infrastructure constraints are further exacerbating these pressures; PG&E recently signaled that its imbalance gas capacity is exhausted, while SoCalGas has issued frequent High Operational Flow Orders (OFOs) as their maintenance shut-in at Aliso Canyon has removed approx. 0.3 Bcf of daily injection capacity from the LA Basin. This outage is slated to last through the end of the month. With midday solar and battery discharge eating into gas-fired generation opportunities, the SoCal Border remains under downward price pressure as system operators seek an outlet for excess supply. Given the moderate temperature outlook for the bal week, the glut of gas is likely to persist, keeping daily indices depressed.
  • Electricity markets across the Western Interconnect are reflecting the above fundamental headwinds, with California seeing modest peak demand and exceptionally soft pricing. The supply stack is currently dominated by renewables during the day, while batteries and Southwest wind imports effectively manage the light-load blocks. Recent CAISO day ahead settlements underscore this volatility and the overall bearish sentiment; while SP15 managed to climb out of negative territory that it saw frequently this past weekend, the peak period still has yet to settle above $7/MWh in the last 10 days. Off-peak prices have stabilized and NP15 continues to clear well above its southern cousin as the import lines are maxed out. Looking at the bal week market, there is little technical support for a price recovery. The combination of suppressed spot natural gas prices and the spring doldrums for load suggests that power prices will continue to hover at these lower tiers as the system remains comfortably supplied.

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