Energy Market Update

Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of September 22, 2025

By The Numbers:

NG '25 prompt-month NYMEX natural gas settled at $2.81/MMbtu, down $.08 on Monday, September 22.
NG '25 prompt-month NYMEX natural gas settled at $3.04/MMbtu one week ago.
Prompt-month crude oil settled at $62.68/bbl., down $.08 on Monday, September 22.
Prompt-month crude oil settled at $63.30/bbl., one week ago.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral/Bearish

Weather for the coming week is neutral-to-bearish. It's warmer in the northern tier offsetting any latent power-generation for air-conditioning load in the southern tier.
Storage inventories are neutral-to-bearish of gas in the coming week. There is a clear line of sight to full inventory by the end of October.
Production is strong, averaging above 106 Bcf per day consistently through this month.
The supply/demand balance favors the supply side for the coming week.
Softness in the prompt and nearby months will persist.
The 2026-2030 five year strip was $3.78/MMbtu on Monday morning. In mid-June the 2026-2030 five-year-strip was trading at $3.86/MMbtu, down $.08/MMbtu over the past three months.
The soft pricing action is embedded in the prompt and nearby months. The backs are holding steady.
The first winter forecasts will be presented in the market this week.

Crude Oil - Neutral

NYMEX (WTI) prompt-month-crude settled at $62.68/bbl., down $.04, on Monday, September 22.
Trump presses Europe to cut Russian energy and target China with tariffs.
The EU has acknowledged Trump's recently stated concerns over China but is waiting to see what kind of "follow-through" is in the cards.
Tariffs on India and China remain contentious in the EU.
Europe moves to cut Russian LNG a year sooner moving the complete ban to January 2027.
Eight OPEC members agreed earlier this month to modestly boost production.

Economy - Neutral

The Fed cut interest rates one quarter of a point.
St. Louis Fed President Musalem sees "limited room" for more cuts.
U.S. Treasury yields hold steady.
Bessent sees trade deal likely with China before November deadline.
Consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 2.9% in August, higher than the Fed target of 2%.
The Leading Economic Index fell 0.5% to 98.4 in August, amid growing concerns about the labor market, headwinds from tariffs and a weaker manufacturing sector.

Weather - Neutral

The general outlook for the entire country, excepting the West Coast is "warmer-than-normal."
The warmth in the northern tier will keep thermal load to a minimum.
The warmth in the southern tier will allow for latent air conditioning load.
The two things above will offset one another.
The tropics are still not a factor this week.

Weekly Natural Gas Report:

Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending September 12 are 3,433 Bcf; an injection of 90 Bcf was reported for the week ending September 12.
Gas inventories are 204 Bcf above the five-year average and 4 Bcf less than the same time last year.

Values reflect week ending Sept. 19, 2025

Prices reflect week ending Sept. 19, 2025

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were slightly higher on the week as natural gas prices rallied above $3.00/MMBtu briefly before falling-off later in the week on bearish factors. The overall weather patten will continue to lean warm, expecting to post above too much above normal temperatures at times for much of the nation over the course of the next couple of weeks with the warmer anomalies focused farther north. Some much-needed rain for the eastern US later this week will be accompanied by some warmer temperatures in the low to mid 80s. The above normal pattern is shown to persist during the first week of October but looks mostly mild across parts of the Midwest and East. Forward power prices were 1% higher over the past week and 2% higher over the past month. The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement average price in West Hub is currently $36.61/MWh, which is 2% higher than last month and 18% higher than a year ago.
PJM Formally Initiates CIFP for Large Load Adjustments (LLA) - On 9/15, PJM officially kicked off the Critical Issue Fast Path (CIFP) to develop market rule changes in response to growing demand from data centers and other large loads. PJM provided an overview of over 60 stakeholders’ input on PJM’s conceptual proposal originally shared on 8/18 with key themes including jurisdictional concerns, load forecast inaccuracy, and lack of support for the Non-Capacity-Backed Load (NCBL) concept. PJM’s updated proposal remained mostly the same although PJM stated openness to other alternatives brought forward by stakeholders through the CIFP process. The most notable change made by PJM is that, instead of triggering NCBL status based on any supply shortage, the revised approach only triggers NCBL if the shortage is due to planned large load additions. The next CIFP meeting, referred to as Stage 2, will be held on 10/1.

Great Lakes Electric Summary

The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were slightly higher on the week as natural gas prices rallied above $3.00/MMBtu briefly before falling-off later in the week on bearish factors. The overall weather patten will continue to lean warm, expecting to post above too much above normal temperatures at times for much of the nation over the course of the next couple of weeks with the warmer anomalies focused farther north. Some much-needed rain for the eastern US later this week will be accompanied by some warmer temperatures in the low to mid 80s. The above normal pattern is shown to persist during the first week of October but looks mostly mild across parts of the Midwest and East. Power forward prices were 1% higher over the past week and 4% higher over the past month. The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in COMED is $33.47/MWh, which is -10% lower than last month, while in AdHub the price is $35.87/MWh or -23% lower than last month. In Michigan the month-to-date, index price average for September thus far is $36.11/MWh or -15% lower than August, while Ameren’s current price average is $34.98/MWh, which is -12% lower than last month.
PJM Formally Initiates CIFP for Large Load Adjustments (LLA) - On 9/15, PJM officially kicked off the Critical Issue Fast Path (CIFP) to develop market rule changes in response to growing demand from data centers and other large loads. PJM provided an overview of over 60 stakeholders’ input on PJM’s conceptual proposal originally shared on 8/18 with key themes including jurisdictional concerns, load forecast inaccuracy, and lack of support for the Non-Capacity-Backed Load (NCBL) concept. PJM’s updated proposal remained mostly the same although PJM stated openness to other alternatives brought forward by stakeholders through the CIFP process. The most notable change made by PJM is that, instead of triggering NCBL status based on any supply shortage, the revised approach only triggers NCBL if the shortage is due to planned large load additions. The next CIFP meeting, referred to as Stage 2, will be held on 10/1.

Northeast Energy Summary

During the New England Power Pool’s Markets Committee Meetings (MC) across September 9-11, ISO-NE kicked off its next phase of Capacity Auction Reform (CAR) discussion with its much-anticipated proposal for seasonal auction design and resource capacity accreditation. The discussion began with a refresher on the ISO-NE’s Marginal Reliability Impact accreditation approach first introduced in summer 2022 as part of the Resource Capacity Accreditation (RCA) reforms but paused since early 2024 to allow development of a prompt capacity market construct. While the accreditation design remains conceptually the same as proposed under RCA, ISO-NE warned of some potentially significant changes, including replacing the Qualified Capacity construct with a Maximum Capability concept, as well as changes to the GE Multi-Area Reliability Simulation modeling of resources to determine resource Marginal Reliability Impact values.
The other significant update from the original RCA design is the introduction of a market-constraint approach to allocate non-firm gas capability during the winter. ISO-NE’s 2022 RCA winter de-rate proposal was strongly opposed by several stakeholders, though the controversy subsided when RCA was effectively shelved in favor of focusing on CAR. Non-firm gas capability discussions will resume in November with a presentation from the Analysis Group reviewing a gas availability followed by ISO‑NE unveiling its gas market constraint accreditation approach at the December MC meeting.
Recently, New York Governor Hochul announced more than $11 million was awarded to five clean hydrogen research and development (R&D) projects. The projects were selected through the Advanced Fuels and Thermal Energy Research Program, administered by NYSERDA. According to NYSERDA, the awarded projects will demonstrate new technology designs, cost reductions associated with hydrogen storage and distribution, evaluate large-scale clean hydrogen storage opportunities, and deploy zero-emission hydrogen-powered transportation. The awarded projects include:
- GTI Energy - Awarded $220,000 to evaluate NY geological hydrogen storage potential;
- National Grid Ventures - Awarded $2 million to install the first commercially deployed 100% hydrogen-fueled linear generator at National Grid’s Northport Power Plant in Fort Salonga;
- Plug Power Inc. - Awarded $2 million to partner with Verne to co-develop new hydrogen distribution trailers with cryo-compressed storage technologies;
- Stony Brook University - Awarded over $4.9 million for a low-pressure, ambient temperature hydrogen storage system at Northwell Health Hospital; and
- SWITCH Maritime LLC - Awarded $2 million to develop and demonstrate NY’s first hydrogen fuel cell-electric ferry

ERCOT Energy Summary

While cooling load is still present it is in decline overall. Last week, temperatures across Texas dropped from the mid 90’s for daytime high in the upper 80’s by the weekend. They rebounded to the mid to upper 90’s for Monday & Tuesday (9/23) but are expected to cool off by Thursday. Wind generation was strong with flat average wind above 10 GW all week, averaging around 13 GW. Flat average Solar output was +10 GW as well.
Entering the third week of September, the forecast trended a touch warmer on Monday as heat will persist ahead of a cold front later this week. This brings 80s into the forecast for the end of the week with lower wind generation. Warmer conditions will return next week, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s during the latter half of next week with the pattern remaining above normal through the 11-15 day period. The pattern remains warmer-than-normal as we head into the 11-15 day, but with lower normal temperatures, this translates into middle 80s to lower 90s. The long-range models 16-30 day outlooks are once again showing a cooler period ahead. The European model indicates cooler conditions during week three (10/13), while the American model predicts below-normal temperatures for both weeks three and four.

ERCOT Forward Prices:

The forward calendar strips week over week and month over month basis were the following:

Source: ERCOT

ERCOT Real Time Prices

Wind and Solar Output

Source: ERCOT

Last week was pretty much a repeat of the week of September 11^th, temperatures in the mid 90’s and adequate wind generation kept real time prices under $100/MWh.

Recent Solar, Wind and Battery Milestones:

Temperatures in the upper 90’s still drove net load, allowing batteries to reach a new maximum storage discharge of 7,656 MW on September 11^th at 7:30 PM CT. This is the 3^rd new battery storage record in September. Solar hit a new output record of 29,833 MW on September 9^th and its first new since July 29th.
Wind peaked at 28,470 MW on March 3^rd. The combined renewables record was set last week on June 21^st at 12:55 CT with 47,040 MW vs load of 73,320 MW or 64% of ERCOT load.

Generator Outages:

Last week, thermal (gas, coal, nuclear & hydro) maintenance came down approximately 2 GW as lingering cooling demand may have kept some units available to ERCOT. Outage season will likely get underway in October.

https://www.gridstatus.io/graph/ercot-outages?iso=ercot&outageType=thermal

Source: ERCOT & Grid Status

TX Legislature, PUCT & ERCOT News:

PUCT & ERCOT Discuss Conditions for Net Metering

The PUCT held a meeting on September 18^th and approved the publication for two proposed new rules related to Senate Bill 6 which was passed in this year’s legislative session.

Project No 58479 relates to “Rulemaking for Net Metering Arrangements Involving a Large Load Co-Located with an Existing Generation Resource”

The passage of SB 6 allows for a coordinated ERCOT and PUCT review of net metering arrangements between large load and existing generation. Per ERCOT

Requires a power generation company, municipally owned utility, or electric cooperative to submit a notice to ERCOT "before implementing a net metering arrangement between an operating facility registered with ERCOT as a stand-alone generation resource as of September 1, 2025, and a new large load customer." (§ 39.169(a))
Requires ERCOT to "study the system impacts of a proposed net metering arrangement and removal of generation" and to "submit the results to the commission with any associated recommendation." (§ 39.169(d)) Requires that the PUC "approve, deny, or impose reasonable conditions on the proposed net metering arrangement as necessary to maintain system reliability, including transmission security and resource adequacy impacts." (§ 39.169(d))
Requires that the PUC "approve, deny, or impose reasonable conditions on the proposed net metering arrangement as necessary to maintain system reliability, including transmission security and resource adequacy impacts." (§ 39.169(d))
Requires a mandatory condition for dispatchable capacity - "must require a generation resource that makes dispatchable capacity available to the ERCOT power region before implementation of a net metering arrangement under this section to make at least that amount of dispatchable capacity available to the ERCOT power region after the implementation of the arrangement at the direction of the independent organization in advance of an anticipated emergency condition." (§ 39.169(d))
Conditions may include: (§ 39.169(d))

requiring customer to curtail during certain events,
requiring the generation resource to make capacity available during certain events, or
requiring customers to be "held harmless for stranded or underutilized transmission assets."

In the PUCT meeting, ERCOT staff went thru the process of how ERCOT staff would go thru a very detailed process to curtail large loads before a frequency event. The following graph was provided as an example of the procedures that would be followed.

The second rule is intended to address how ERCOT will better incorporate large loads into its load forecasts.

Project No. 58480, “Rulemaking to Establish Large Load Forecasting Criteria”

The PUCT staff had filed a “the new rule will identify the criteria that a 5 large load customer must meet for inclusion in the load data that a transmission and/or distribution 6 service provider (TDSP) submits to ERCOT for purposes of developing the load forecasts that 7 ERCOT uses for its transmission planning and resource adequacy models and reports.” A key part of the discussion was whether to lower the threshold for new large load definition at 75 MW or greater. ERCOT staff discussed the possibility of lowering the requirement to 25 MW. For now, ERCOT will conduct its 2026 Regional Transmission Plan assuming large load size of 75 MW.

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

Yesterday brought the beginning of fall with the Autumnal Equinox, but summer temperatures aren’t leaving yet as above and much-above average temperatures are in the forecast for this week across the West. Sacramento and the LA Basin are going to see daytime highs in the low-90s today 9/23, while Las Vegas highs hover in the mid-90s for much of this week and Phoenix climbs into the low to mid-100s on Weds and Thurs. Temperatures across California are looking more seasonal next week thanks to an upper-level low currently sitting off the coast of SoCal. After a seasonable finish to the month for California and the Southwest, the models then suggest above normal temperatures build back into the region for the first week of October.
Excessive warmth in the weather pattern is starting to retreat, and it is showing up in the power profiles across the CAISO footprint. Without the higher temperatures, renewable generation is eating away at a larger portion of demand which means the need for natural gas-fired generation downshifts. This is appearing consistently in the cash prices for SoCal city gate as they’ve dropped from levels above $4.00 per MMBtu to numbers starting with a $3, moving in the direction of October prices at the city gate that are coming in around $3.50 for the month. PG&E city gate numbers are holding above the $4.00 MMBtu mark. Subdued prices reflect a comfortable storage position across the state, but don’t expect the bottom to fall out of basis. Support will remain for prices as there is a need to keep refilling the caverns to replace what was used during the strong dose of heat across state last week, and the pressure to hit tank tops for storage as we move towards the first week of November. PG&E continues to see maintenance upstream on Gas Transmission Northwest (GTN) hod back flows at Redwood. Helping relieve pressure on thermal units is the return of the Helms pump-storage units which have been offline for maintenance.
The deadline is rapidly approaching for the Colorado River Basin states to come up with a plan for divvying up the river’s waters and operating its reservoirs and other plumbing infrastructure after 2026. “Immediate and substantial reductions” in Colorado River water use could be needed much sooner than anyone predicted, according to a study published two weeks ago. The problem: People are using more water than the amount that has been coming down the river, and it could reach a tipping point by the end of next summer. That’s the conclusion of a study involving research and collaboration among four universities — the University of New Mexico, Utah State University, Arizona State University, and the University of Colorado. Their analysis found that a repeat of the 2025 water year, which ends at the end of this month, will result in consumptive water use in the basin exceeding the Colorado River’s natural flow by at least 3.6 million acre-feet. That would potentially use up the remainder of the “realistically accessible storage” in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, constraining reservoir operations as early as July 2026. It will arrive sooner if the region experiences another dry winter. Lake Mead is the largest reservoir in the U.S. by capacity — capable of storing more than 26 million acre-feet of water, according to the Bureau of Reclamation. It is followed by Lake Powell, which can store 24 million acre-feet.

LevelTen Energy Snapshot Graphs and Commentary

LevelTen Energy’s snapshot on U.S. and EU Power Purchasing Agreement (PPA) pricing is below. For more information on LevelTen please visit www.leveltenenergy.com.

Key Market Impacts to Renewables from the Renewable Power Teams at Constellation

Recent changes in climate reporting standards reveal an effort from working groups to standardize terminology, metrics, and reporting. However, these changes are being met with political resistance, most notably from a group of attorney generals who claim these organizations are exhibiting anticompetitive behavior. Concurrently, the EPA has challenged net-zero standards and emissions reporting with an effort to roll back the collection of emissions data.

September 8, 2025: “ISO, Greenhouse Gas Protocol to Align on Carbon Accounting Rules”
- The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and the Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHGP) are aiming to align their reporting frameworks for GHG emissions to enable governments and businesses to more easily disclose their emissions.
- This move aims to mitigate fragmentation between GHG reporting standards globally and cut down on geographical differences between the playbooks, tools, and guidelines used.
- Certain environmental groups are concerned that this harmonization in standards might mean weaker rules overall, so this will be a key area to track as guidelines are released.
September 8, 2025: “Republican Attorneys General Accuse Net-Zero Standards Setters of Running Climate Cartel - WSJ”
- In August 2025, twenty-three Republican Attorneys General wrote a letter claiming that the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) and the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) were engaging in anticompetitive behavior, stating that net-zero goals harm U.S. agriculture, industry, and energy independence.
- This letter follows a wave of anti-ESG legislation and investigations around antitrust laws, with over 480 bills proposed since 2021 that have targeted ESG investing and accused several other climate focused groups of collusion.
- These actions have the potential to discourage companies from publishing emissions disclosures and have already sparked an exodus of firms from their respective net-zero alliances.
September 12, 2025: “EPA to Stop Collecting Emissions Data From Polluters”
- As of Friday, September 12, 2025, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has “moved to stop requiring thousands of polluting facilities to report the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases that they release into the air” citing reduced compliance costs for businesses.
- While certain emissions reporting requirements for oil and gas facilities will still be mandatory, these reporting requirements will be postponed until 2034.
- Historically, groups such as local communities, private companies, and the United Nations have relied on EPA data to track and report emissions, so the EPA’s departure from emissions reporting could hinder the reporting abilities of these groups.
- This proposal has not yet been finalized yet, but “after the E.P.A. proposal is published in the Federal Register, the E.P.A. will solicit public comments for 47 days [and then] the agency will finalize the proposal, likely within the next year.”

For questions on these items and more please reach out to SustainabilityTeam@Constellation.com and your inquiry will be directed to an inhouse expert.

Sustainability Corner – Information on Sustainability Concepts and Education

Understanding Scope 2 Market-Based Emissions and Data Sources

When reporting Scope 2 emissions, companies must disclose using both the location-based and market-based methods under the Greenhouse Gas Protocol. While location-based reporting reflects average grid emissions (e.g., via eGRID which were discussed in last week’s installment), the market-based method captures the emissions profile associated with a company’s specific electricity procurement choices.

Two key data sources underpin market-based calculations:

1. Emission Factor

Supplier-Specific Emissions Factors: These represent the emissions intensity of electricity supplied by a specific utility or retail energy provider. At Constellation, we use GHGP guidance to develop our supplier emission rates, which reflect environmental attribute certificates retired on behalf of our customers for meeting RPS obligations. Our factors are only reflective of the contractual instruments for which our customers have claim, they do not reflect supply arrangements from owned assets or power purchase agreements (PPAs) used to serve retail load. It’s also important to note the Constellation New Energy supplier rates are different that Constellation Generation CO2 intensity.
Residual Mix: An alternative to or when supplier-specific data is not available, companies can use the “residual mix.” This represents the grid’s emissions profile after renewable energy claims have been removed (i.e., what remains once RECs and other attributes have been claimed elsewhere). Residual mix data is crucial to avoid double counting, ensuring that only the entity holding the renewable attribute can claim its emissions reduction.

2. Products procured

Companies can actively manage their market-based emissions by purchasing clean energy products, including but not limited to:

EFECs or Nuclear Certificates (emission-free attributes from non-renewable zero-carbon sources).
Unbundled RECs (claims to renewable attributes without bundled electricity).
PPAs (long-term contracts directly tied to new renewable generation).
Utility Green Power Programs (utility-delivered renewable electricity).

By leveraging supplier-specific data and purchasing credible energy products, organizations can reduce their reported market-based Scope 2 emissions, demonstrate leadership in procurement, and align with international climate reporting standards.