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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of June 22, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt-month natural gas settled at $3.25/MMbtu, up $.02 on Monday, June 22.
  • Prompt month natural gas settled at $3.15/MMbtu on Monday, June 8.
  • Prompt month natural gas settled at $3.18/MMbtu on Monday, June 1.
  • Prompt month crude oil (WTI) settled at $74.82/bbl., down $1.78 on Monday, June 22.
  • Prompt month crude oil (WTI) settled at $94.60/bbl., on Monday, June 8.
  • Prompt month crude oil (WTI) settled at $92.16/bbl., on Monday, June 1.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral

  • Temperatures are well in check in the East and largely throughout the Midwest in the 6-10 day period becoming more "seasonal" next week.  New York, over the next ten days, will not exceed a high of 84.  The south is quite hot.  Houston and Dallas will reach heat-indices above 100 degrees. The heat in the south extends easterly with Atlanta in the upper 90s this week and plenty of humidity. 
  • YTD Production of natural gas year-to-date averaged 108.8 Bcf, up 4 Bcf per day from last year.
  • YTD Power generation averaged 33.2 Bcf per day, up 1.2 Bcf per day from the same period last year.
  • YTD Industrial consumption averaged 23.5 Bcf per day, down 0.5 Bcf per day from the same period last year.
  • YTD Residential/commercial consumption averaged 23.5 Bcf per day, down 0.5 Bcf per day year-over-year.
  • YTD LNG exports averaged 19.4 Bcf per day versus 15.6 Bcf per day over the same period last year.
  • The market is well supplied, but the supply/demand balance has tightened over the past six weeks as residential/commercial demand is bottoming, while power-generation load is rising.

Crude Oil - Neutral/Bullish

  • Prompt-month crude oil (WTI) settled at $74.82/bbl., down $1.78 on Monday, June 22. Crude is down $20/bbl., from ten days ago as negotiations for a settlement to the war continue.
  • The Trump Administration executed a "Memorandum of Understanding" with Iran last week as a framework to a final settlement to be reached over the coming 60 days.
  • Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) is increasing with reports of 20 to 25 ships per day currently. Prior to the war, SOH traffic averaged approximately 120 ships per day.
  • Uncertainty abounds and the situation is still volatile.

Economy - Neutral

  • The S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7, the strongest reading since 2022.
  • At its June meeting, the Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5%, but officials emphasized inflation is too high.
  • The average 30-year fixed mortgage rage is 6.6%, up from earlier this year.
  • Unemployment remains unchanged at 4.3%.
  • Employment gains and large-scale AI investment and healthy construction numbers are offset by inflation and general energy-price (crude, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) uncertainty.  The housing market continues to be in the doldrums as well.

Weather - Neutral/Bullish

  • The near-term outlook in the East and Midwest is below normal this week and then trending to "seasonally normal" next week. 
  • It is very hot in the South and Southwest.
  • It is very cool in the Pacific Northwest.

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending June 12 are 2,759 Bcf; an injection of 73 Bcf was reported for the week ending June 12. Stocks were 29 Bcf lower than this time last year and 151 Bcf above the five-year-average.
Values reflect week ending June 19, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending June 19, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were slightly higher over the past week as cooling demand increases in June are starting to take hold.  Hotter early-July forecasts lifted natural gas futures Monday, as expectations for stronger cooling demand and increased LNG exports signaled tighter storage injections ahead of winter.  A warmer weather outlook for early July is being tempered by strong production and healthy storage levels currently.  The near-term forecast is cooler in the East, with heat building across the West. This pattern lasts through the balance of this week before flipping next week, as heat builds in the East while the West cools. The center of the heat ridge next week will be over the Tennessee Valley, with the strongest heat anomalies north of this area, but temperatures will still be solidly above normal across the typically hot South. The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were 2% higher over the past week and the same over the past month.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price for June thus far in West Hub is $58.04/MWh which is 27% higher than May’s final settlement price average.
  • PJM Releases Updated Proposals for CIFP Stage 4 Meeting - On 6/18, PJM released its updated proposal for both Reliability Backstop Procurement (RBP) and Connect & Manage ahead of the 6/30 Critical Issue Fast Path (CIFP) Stage 4 meeting at which stakeholders will vote on competing proposals.  PJM has changed its Connect & Manage proposal, moving away from a mandated load-reduction construct for new large loads and instead now proposes a registry that includes both existing and new large loads.  The registry, which will be maintained by PJM, is intended to provide states and relevant industry partners, like Electric Distribution Companies (EDCs) and Load Serving Entities (LSEs), with a list of large loads to support the implementation of any retail curtailment policies needed.  All loads over 50 MW at the same Point of Interconnection must register with PJM.
  • With regards to the Reliability Backstop Procurement (RBP), PJM’s updated proposal clarifies key timelines and design elements.  PJM intends to file at FERC on 7/10.  The central procurement phase will open on 9/10 and close on 11/20.  Bid solicitation and target adjustment will occur from 9/10 through 10/9, with the selection process and posting of results taking place from 10/10 through 11/20. The bilateral phase has already begun, with initial matches expected by August 2026, and runs through December 2026 to March 2027.  PJM will continue to define the procurement target based on the expected 2028/2029 BRA shortfall, adjusted for new supply showings, including: signed contracts for new supply, approved IRP supply, and large load sites confirmed for demand-side participation.  PJM has updated its maximum willingness to pay (price cap) in the central procurement to Point A on the RTO Variable Resource Requirement curve, approximately $555/MW-day. 

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were slightly higher over the past week as cooling demand increases in June are starting to take hold.  Hotter early-July forecasts lifted natural gas futures Monday, as expectations for stronger cooling demand and increased LNG exports signaled tighter storage injections ahead of winter.  A warmer weather outlook for early July is being tempered by strong production and current healthy storage levels.  The near-term forecast is cooler in the East, with heat building across the West. This pattern lasts through the balance of this week before flipping next week, as heat builds in the East while the West cools. The center of the heat ridge next week will be over the Tennessee Valley, with the strongest heat anomalies north of this area, but temperatures will still be solidly above normal across the typically hot South. The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were 1% higher over the past week and 2% over the past month.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price for June thus far in COMED is $33.04/MWh which is 15% higher than May’s final settlement price average, while in AdHub that price is $44.62/MWh or 13% higher than the previous month.  In Michigan, the average price thus far for June is $42.19/MWh or 24% higher than the May average, while in Ameren the current month-to-date average is $35.21/MWh or 18% higher than last month. 
  • PJM Releases Updated Proposals for CIFP Stage 4 Meeting - On 6/18, PJM released its updated proposal for both Reliability Backstop Procurement (RBP) and Connect & Manage ahead of the 6/30 Critical Issue Fast Path (CIFP) Stage 4 meeting at which stakeholders will vote on competing proposals.  PJM has changed its Connect & Manage proposal, moving away from a mandated load-reduction construct for new large loads and instead now proposes a registry that includes both existing and new large loads.  The registry, which will be maintained by PJM, is intended to provide states and relevant industry partners, like Electric Distribution Companies (EDCs) and Load Serving Entities (LSEs), with a list of large loads to support the implementation of any retail curtailment policies needed.  All loads over 50 MW at the same Point of Interconnection must register with PJM.
  • With regards to the Reliability Backstop Procurement (RBP), PJM’s updated proposal clarifies key timelines and design elements.  PJM intends to file at FERC on 7/10.  The central procurement phase will open on 9/10 and close on 11/20.  Bid solicitation and target adjustment will occur from 9/10 through 10/9, with the selection process and posting of results taking place from 10/10 through 11/20. The bilateral phase has already begun, with initial matches expected by August 2026, and runs through December 2026 to March 2027.  PJM will continue to define the procurement target based on the expected 2028/2029 BRA shortfall, adjusted for new supply showings, including: signed contracts for new supply, approved IRP supply, and large load sites confirmed for demand-side participation.  PJM has updated its maximum willingness to pay (price cap) in the central procurement to Point A on the RTO Variable Resource Requirement curve, approximately $555/MW-day. 

Northeast Energy Summary

  • Last week, the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL) Participants Committee (PC) held its annual summer meeting at which a number of market changes proposed by ISO-NE were approved by the committee.  First, members approved ISO-NE’s proposal to reduce the Pay for Performance Payment Rate from $9,337/MWh to $3,500/MWh, effective on September 1.  ISO-NE stated that the change is intended to reduce supplier risk and lower consumer costs with minimal reliability impact.  CEO Vamsi Chadalavada noted that lowering risk is important to keep generators participating in the market.  Second, the PC approved ISO-NE’s proposed updates to the Day-Ahead Ancillary Services market with 68% support.  The changes include establishing a strike price floor based on efficient gas turbine costs and adjusting demand quantities to better reflect expected renewable output.  ISO-NE’s back cast analysis suggests the changes would reduce Day-Ahead Ancillary Service revenues by 28–30% (about $269–280 million).  Finally, NEPOOL approved ISO-NE’s compliance proposal responding to FERC’s order on the Pay for Performance Balancing Ratio.  Key changes include capping the balancing ratio at 1.0, continuing to distribute surplus funds to capacity holders, and shifting responsibility for balancing fund deficits to overperforming resources through reduced payments.  ISO-NE also proposes eliminating Capacity Performance bilaterals due to limited use.  The compliance filing is due to FERC by July 21, with a October 1 proposed effective date.
  • NYISO recently released its 2026 Power Trends report, warning that transmission security issues could emerge as early as summer 2026 in New York City and summer 2027 on Long Island.  The report states that reliability will depend on timely completion of a limited number of major projects and underscores the need for additional flexible, dispatchable resources.  It also encourages the state to maintain an “all of the above” approach, pairing cleaner natural gas technologies in the near term with nuclear development over the longer term.  Overall, the report supports efforts for repowering, modernization, and competitive market structures as key tools to protect reliability and consumer costs.
  • Earlier this month, the New York Public Service Commission initiated the Nuclear Reliability Backbone proceeding in furtherance of Governor Hochul’s 2026 State of the State directive to establish a pathway for 4 GW of new nuclear capacity, in addition to the at least 1 GW of new nuclear generation she directed the New York Power Authority to develop and build in 2025.  The initiative builds upon the state’s existing 3.4 GW nuclear fleet to form an 8.4 GW “Nuclear Backbone” of zero-emission baseload resources.  The proceeding will consider policy, procurement, financing, risk-management, and technology-selection issues associated with commercial deployment of new advanced nuclear projects.  Initial stakeholder comments are due August before a technical conference later this fall, and DPS white paper expected later this year.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • The West is preparing for a transitional weather pattern as a cooling trough moves through the region to close out June, offering temporary relief from recent heat waves. While high temperatures will persist across the Pacific Northwest and the interior West for a few more days, the pattern will shift into the weekend with much milder conditions across northern zones and bring the Desert Southwest cities down to seasonable levels (only) in the mid-100s. The usual split will occur in California between the coastal and inland areas as the coastal population centers should remain at the ‘completely pleasant’ level due to a strong onshore influence, while inland areas like interior LA and the Central Valley will see temperatures eventually climb back into the upper 80s and low 90s during the 11-15 day period.
  • The Western natural gas mkt has spent the spring searching for a reason to consume molecules in the power sector. A mild May and a soft open to June left the California complex long – in-basin production firm, pipeline receipts steady, and storage filling faster than a year ago – with cooling-driven power burn the missing ingredient. A long-duration marine heatwave has been camped out off the coast of California since late winter, holding sea-surface temps near record levels and lifting the “baseline” warmth of the entire West Coast. This has manifested less in the form of extreme afternoon peaks and more in the form of a warm blanket at night; overnight temps are running considerably milder than usual, which keeps cooling load – and the gas-fired gens that support it – running well into the evening. That said, the incremental demand hasn’t been enough to bleed down storage, and the caverns are in really good shape heading into the cooling season. PG&E’s inventories show roughly 184 Bcf, about 17 Bcf above last June. SoCalGas’s storage needle is pointing to ~105 Bcf, roughly 10 Bcf above last yr. With a marine heatwave parked offshore, an El Niño now official, and maybe a heat ridge building over the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, maybe gas operators finally have line of sight to a need for gas-fired gens to start running consistently. If not, it’s going to be a long summer of operational flow orders (OFOs).
  • CAISO’s electricity dispatchers have spent the last three months hitting their own type of OFO-button in the form of curtailing excess renewable generation. Negative prices and spring curtailments, driven by midday solar flooding a grid searching for demand, has been the norm. As chances increase that a weather pattern brings demand into the equation, we may see that excess supply get absorbed. The wealth of the solar-hours (HE8–18) may finally meet demand and see prices lift above zero and the curtailments fade.

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