Energy Market Update

• Texas likely saw peak summer temperatures last Monday (8/24) as Dallas hit a 2026 high of 108 F, 101 F in Houston while Austin was 104 F as the heat ridge was centered over TX. Temperatures moderated after Wednesday 8/26.
• As we get ready to go to print today, all attention is on Tropical Storm Edouard is in the Gulf and likely to make landfall early Wednesday morning. The storm is in a favorable environment for it to continue strengthening before making landfall along the upper Texas coast near the Louisiana border today. The good news for Houston is that the city will remain on the weaker side of the storm, while the heaviest rainfall is expected across the northern and eastern suburbs, where flooding would be more likely to occur. Edouard will weaken as it moves inland over the next 48 hours.
• See link to NHC to track Edouard’s storm path.

• Even though it is now September, summer is hanging in there in Texas. Last week saw peak temperatures in Dallas remaining between 99F - 101 F last week while Houston ranged 90-98F while Austin was 98-102 F. Flat average wind ranged 9.5-18.6 GW with most of the week at 11-12 GW providing adequate wind resources for early evening hours. Solar was flat at 10-13 GW. 
• Current Hurricane Status: No current storm threats
• The heat ridge continues to meander from the Midwest into the South, with occasional temperature spikes extending into the East. This pattern is more meaningful for cooling demand from the I-70 corridor southward, while above-normal temperatures across the northern latitudes are generally less impactful this time of year and help slow the onset of overnight heating demand. In the West, any meaningful heat remains confined to the Southwest. This pattern persists into the 11-15 day period.
• What does the forecast mean for Texas? Basically, its keeping summer on a low boil. Highs are expected to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s in Dallas, the upper 90s in San Antonio, and the lower to middle 90s in Houston, where scattered storms are also possible. The main focus is wind generation, which is strong today before beginning to taper off later this week, with below-normal output forecasted for next week. By that time, Texas should not be as hot, though temperatures are still expected to remain above normal. Model averages trend closer to normal in the 11-15 day period.
• Forward prices in ERCOT prices rebounded after the PUCT meeting on 9/11 establishing some clarity to the Batch Zero process as to how much load they are looking at. They still plan to report on its audits of data centers by the Dec 17^th PUCT meeting. Cal 2027 North Zone rose 2.9% week over week; Cal 2028 rose 6.25

ERCOT Real Time Prices

 Source: ERCOT

• Real time prices were in the mid $30’s/MWh last week as demand was steady.

Recent Solar, Wind and Battery Milestones:

• ERCOT set a new battery CHARGING record of 11,447 MW on August 30^th at 9:30 am CT, displacing the one from August 7^th of 11,245 MW. The discharge record from August 23^rd of 13,255 MW at 7:45 pm CT still stands.   
• The solar output record of 35,281MW from 7/30 still stands. This surpassed another record set on July 27^th for 34,700 MW. The top 10 days for ERCOT maximum solar have occurred so far this year in July and August.
• The new all-time maximum load record of 91,089 MW from July 22^nd still stands but August has traditionally seen ERCOT set its new peak loads. ERCOT set a new maximum solar output record 35,281 MW on July 30^th and the second new one this week. On July 8^th ERCOT set a new discharge record for batteries of 11,674 MW breaking the record of 10,372 MW set back on March 13^th.
• June 25^th saw a new record output for combined renewables of 51,974 MW, the second this week and breaking the previous record of 47,919 MW on May 14^th.  ERCOT set a new wind record last week at 28,928 MW on May 17^th at 11:50 PM CT as winds were strong overnight.  The previous maximum wind record of 28,715 MW set on 3/14 at 10:55 pm CT. ERCOT also set a maximum renewables output of 47,919 MW on May 14^th at 3:15 pm CT. This was ~900 MW higher than the previous record from last June.

Generator Outages

• Thermal generation outages ticked up a few GW last week going from a low of ~9 GW to a high 12.8 GW.  A likely driver is plants performing short term maintenance over the weekend as it has been a long summer and short-term maintenance is done on weekends.

https://www.gridstatus.io/graph/ercot-outages?iso=ercot&outageType=thermal

Source: ERCOT & Grid Status

TX Legislature, PUCT, & ERCOT News:

At its September 11^th meeting ERCOT provided an update at the 9/11 open meeting of the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) on implementation of the Batch Zero large load interconnection reforms and associated data center review processes. ERCOT has issued conditional classifications for 362 large load projects totaling 191.8 GW, including 204 projects (66.4 GW) classified as base load and 158 projects (125.4 GW) classified as studied load. ERCOT reported that 302.2 GW of proposed large load demand across 373 projects was excluded from the Batch Zero process.

The Batch Zero eligibility audit process is now underway, with ERCOT issuing RFIs for 231 projects and requiring supporting documentation and notarized attestations by 9/23. ERCOT plans to file its Batch Zero Eligibility Verification Report on 12/10 and discuss results at the PUCT’s 12/17 open meeting. Separately, ERCOT will launch a State and Community Impact RFI process the week of 9/14, targeting approximately 461 data center projects, including 247 Batch Zero large loads (168.2 GW) and 214 medium-load projects (12.5 GW). ERCOT emphasized that these are two distinct workstreams: the verification and audit process will determine whether large loads may proceed through the Batch Zero interconnection pathway, while the community impact process is intended to provide policymakers with information regarding the broader impacts of data center development in Texas. ERCOT stated that both efforts remain on schedule.

PUCT Grants ERCOT Good Cause Exception on Ancillary Service Procurement - The PUCT approved ERCOT’s request for a good-cause exception that allows ERCOT to continue procuring currently posted 2026 minimum quantities of ERCOT Contingency Reserve Service (ECRS) and Non-Spinning Reserve Service (Non-Spin), despite identifying a modeling discrepancy in the approved 2026 Ancillary Services Methodology. ERCOT determined in July that the approved probabilistic model would have produced combined ECRS and Non-Spin procurement requirements approximately 3,700 MW higher on average across 2026 than the quantities previously presented to stakeholders and relied upon during the approval process.

The commission approved the good cause exception to permit ERCOT to deviate from the approved methodology through the remainder of 2026, avoiding a significant increase in ancillary service procurement volumes and associated market costs. ERCOT has already adjusted certain Non-Spin requirements for September through December to maintain reliability safeguards, and the exception remains in effect until the 2027 Ancillary Services Methodology is approved and implemented.

PUCT Delays Adoption of SB 6 Large Load Interconnection Rule Until 9/18 - At its 9/11 open meeting, the PUCT considered staff's recommended adoption order in Project 58481, which would implement the large load interconnection requirements enacted through SB 6. The proposed rule establishes new obligations for large-load customers seeking service in ERCOT, including execution of an intermediate agreement, disclosure requirements, and financial security equal to $50,000/MW before inclusion in ERCOT interconnection studies. The rule is intended to improve planning certainty and discourage speculative load requests, particularly from large emerging loads such as data centers.

The commission did not adopt the rule and, instead, Chairman Gleeson indicated the need for an additional week to review the proposal before taking final action. Assuming the rule is adopted, the rule will would establish a new framework governing financial commitments, disclosure requirements, and withdrawal penalties for large-load interconnection requests in ERCOT.

Source: ERCOT