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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of October 19, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt-month (November) natural gas settled at $3.06/MMbtu, down $0.06, on Monday, October 19.
  • Prompt-month (November) natural gas settled at $3.04/MMbtu, on Monday, October 5.
  • November crude (WTI) is up sharply this morning trading at $104.25/bbl.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Bearish

  • Natural gas production has been recovering over the past week from Gulf of America hurricane shut-ins; production is also recovering from some pipeline-related outages in the East.
  • Power generation demand is falling as the seasonality of fall weather continues to reduce air-conditioning demand. Some heating load is offsetting the loss of power-generation demand, but the trend for demand in the near term is an aggregate loss. LNG feedgas deliveries are increasing over the past several days reaching 21 Bcf per day. Month-to-date, LNG feedgas deliveries averaged 19.7 Bcf per day.  
  • End-of-season storage inventories are forecast near 3.8 trillion cubic feet, just above the five-year average and a volume that is considered nearly full.
  • The winter weather forecasts are bearish. The December forecast is Bearish as a strong El Nino dominates the pattern.

Crude Oil - Bullish

  • Point of Clarification: The "Bullish" moniker above will remain in place until further notice as the situation in the Persian Gulf remains highly unstable.
  • November crude is up sharply this morning trading at $104.25/bbl.
  • Crude oil is supported by multiple factors in the Persian Gulf -- Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, ships targeted in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Surging freight and shipping costs are playing a major role in keeping crude oil much elevated.
  • Saudi Arabia said its September crude oil production increased to 8.7 million barrels per day, up 2 million barrels per day from August.  The Saudi's cut the benchmark price of their light crude by $5 per barrel.
  • The EIA reported October crude oil inventories in the U.S. at -2.4 percent of seasonal average and distillate inventories at -11.7 percent of the five-year average.

Economy - Neutral

  • The September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year. Gasoline prices rose 9.1% during September, accounting for more than half of the monthly CPI increase.
  • September housing starts fell 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million units. Single family starts declined 4.6% while building permits also weakened.
  • Economists continue to point to AI-related infrastructure investment and spending by higher income households as important sources of economic resilience.
  • The Fed's October Beige Book reported little overall spending growth across much of the country. Manufacturing was stronger in some districts, while lower-income consumers are more cautious.

Weather - Neutral

  • The Eastern 2/3 of the nation can be described as "Goldilocks;" Not too hot, not too cold, just right.  Dallas daytime highs will be in the upper 70s and low 80s with mighttime lows in the upper 50s.  Atlanta will have daytime highs in the low 70s and nighttime lows in the upper 40s. The upper Midwest will be very cool and seasonal, but daytime highs will be in the upper 60s through this week in Chicago.  Nashville will be in the mid 70s this week during the day and the upper 40s at night.  Generally, its a relatively low-demand scenario.

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending October 9 are 3,567 Bcf; an injection of 67 Bcf was reported for the week ending October 9. Stocks were 143 Bcf lower than this time last year and 45 Bcf above the five-year-average.
Values reflect week ending Oct. 16, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending Oct. 16, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were slightly lower this past week as prices settled lower primarily due to seasonal demand.  Recovering production and weak near-term heating demand weighed on prices, despite stronger LNG send-outs.  Recent weather model runs saw cooler changes, but the national outlook remains warmer than normal. The main culprit is a storm off the East Coast, which contributed to cooler changes across the eastern third of the nation with a slower and weaker warm up this week.  The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2031 calendar strips were -1% lower over the past week, with the nearest terms decreasing by ~2% while the later terms decreasing by ~1%.  Month-over-month, the forward prices are 5% higher for the full term.  The current month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price for October in West Hub is $76.02/MWh or is 12% higher than September’s final settlement price average of $67.85/MWh.
  • PJM Manages Hot Weather Operations - Ahead of hot weather conditions from 10/12 through 10/14, PJM issued several emergency alerts and actions to manage grid operations.  The preliminary forecasted load for the affected period was noted by PJM to be following:   on 10/12 – Peak 103,125 MW, Net Peak 96,500 MW; on 10/13 – Peak 112,447 MW, Net Peak 108,000 MW;  on 10/14 – Peak 113,312 MW, Net Peak 107,000 MW.  The challenge presented by these seasonally high loads was compounded by the fact that this is typically the period when many units and lines are on maintenance outages.  While PJM recalled or canceled transmission and generation outages to the extent possible, it was still expecting approximately 62,000 MW to be unavailable through the affected period, in addition to key transmission outages.  On 10/09, PJM for the first time issued the newly created Capacity Advisory emergency procedure for 10/12 and 10/13.  This advisory was created specifically for when projected grid operating conditions indicate an approaching capacity shortfall.  On 10/12, PJM issued a Maximum Generation Alert and Load Management Alert for 10/13.  As grid conditions continued to evolve, PJM extended both alerts, along with Capacity Advisory through 10/14.  PJM also requested and received a combined emergency order, effective from 10/13 –10/16, from the U.S. Department of Energy. 

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were slightly lower this past week as prices settled lower primarily due to seasonal demand.  Recovering production and weak near-term heating demand is currently weighing on prices, despite stronger LNG send-outs.  The Goldilocks weather pattern continues this week—not too hot and not too cool.  This will keep heating demand low while generating a modest amount of cooling demand across the southern tier. The pattern becomes more mixed next week as a cold front moves across the eastern United States. The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2031 calendar strips were -1% lower over the past week, with the nearest terms decreasing by ~2% while the later terms were mostly unchanged.  Month-over-month, the forward prices are 3% higher for the full term.  The current month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price for October in COMED is $57.50/MWh or is 21% higher than September’s final settlement price average, while that price average thus far in AdHub is $70.60/MWh or 12% higher than last month.  In Michigan the month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price is $60.34/MWh or is 5% higher than September’s final settlement price average, while that price average thus far in Ameren is $53.87/MWh or -9% lower than last month. 
  • PJM Manages Hot Weather Operations - Ahead of hot weather conditions from 10/12 through 10/14, PJM issued several emergency alerts and actions to manage grid operations.  The preliminary forecasted load for the affected period was noted by PJM to be following:  on 10/12 – Peak 103,125 MW, Net Peak 96,500 MW;  on 10/13 – Peak 112,447 MW, Net Peak 108,000 MW;  on 10/14 – Peak 113,312 MW, Net Peak 107,000 MW.  The challenge presented by these seasonally high loads was compounded by the fact that this is typically the period when many units and lines are on maintenance outages.  While PJM recalled or canceled transmission and generation outages to the extent possible, it was still expecting approximately 62,000 MW to be unavailable through the affected period, in addition to key transmission outages.  On 10/09, PJM for the first time issued the newly created Capacity Advisory emergency procedure for 10/12 and 10/13.  This advisory was created specifically for when projected grid operating conditions indicate an approaching capacity shortfall.  On 10/12, PJM issued a Maximum Generation Alert and Load Management Alert for 10/13.  As grid conditions continued to evolve, PJM extended both alerts, along with Capacity Advisory through 10/14.  PJM also requested and received a combined emergency order, effective from 10/13 –10/16, from the U.S. Department of Energy. 

Northeast Energy Summary

  • On October 5, Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey issued Executive Order (EO) No. 659: Proclaiming an Energy Emergency and Providing Immediate Home Energy Assistance and Relief on Energy Bills During the Winter Months.  The Governor issued the EO to lower anticipated heating and electric bills this winter in response to significant increases in oil prices.  The EO uses alternative compliance payments from the state’s clean energy programs to augment assistance funds for the Home Energy Assistance Program and expand eligibility to middle class households.  To reduce electric bills, the EO directs $80 million in state funds to eliminate the Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target program charge on electric bills for at least three months, requires the Department of Energy Resources (DOER) to reduce ratepayer costs attributable to the Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (APS) program by 50%, directs the Department of Public Utilities to review the statewide net-metering program to identify ways to control costs while supporting solar development, and directs the Department of Environmental Protection to review the carbon requirements for in-state power generators to give greater compliance flexibility, allowance availability, and cost-containment mechanisms to reduce program costs.  Following the EO, DOER filed the emergency regulations on 10/7 that would reduce costs of the APS by lowering the minimum APS standard beginning in 2027.  The previous standard required 6.75% of electric sales in 2027 and increased by 0.25% per year.  Now, the 2027 minimum APS standard is set at 2%, reduces to 1.5% for 2028 and 1.25% for 2029, then is set at 1% for 2030 and beyond, thereby significantly reducing the amount of attributes suppliers need to procure to maintain compliance with the program.
  • On 10/5, New York state agencies held a technical conference to collect input and inform the Public Service Commission’s Nuclear Reliability Backbone proceeding (Case 26-01032).  Representatives from the Department of Public Service (DPS), New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), New York Power Authority (NYPA) and Brattle Group provided an overview of New York’s decades-long experience with the nuclear industry, history of advancing pro-nuclear policies, NYPA’s current 1 GW nuclear procurement, and NYSERDA’s “policy options paper” recently released to inform the state’s broader initiative to achieve 5 GW of advanced nuclear power.  The tech conference follows a recent public comment period on NYSERDA’s policy paper and is meant to inform a broader staff-written whitepaper that will be released next month.  State modeling indicates that up to 5 GW of new nuclear capacity could improve reliability, reduce renewable and transmission build requirements, and deliver substantial system savings through 2050.  NYPA is currently advancing the first 1 GW through host-community outreach, developer selection, workforce investment, and project planning.  DPS and NYSERDA are concurrently evaluating financing, procurement, and risk-sharing mechanisms—including advanced nuclear credits, grants, state equity participation, and third-party offtake—to address the significant pre-development, construction, and revenue risks that wholesale markets alone are unlikely to support.  NYSERDA is also slated to release its statewide Advanced Nuclear Master Plan by year-end 2026, which coupled with NYPA’s procurement, will shape technology, siting, financing, and deployment decisions.
  • On 10/13, energy affordability, reliability and new generation were major flashpoints in New York’s only gubernatorial debate between Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman.  Average residential electricity bills in New York increased 10% from 2024 to 2025, and the state now has the eighth-highest residential electricity prices in the country.  Against that backdrop, Hochul defended an “all-of-the-above” strategy and emphasized expanding nuclear generation, while Blakeman called for reopening Indian Point and lifting New York’s fracking ban.  Hochul also acknowledged that electricity supply is lagging demand and connected the issue to rapidly growing data-center load; she said her administration is pursuing nuclear development while using energy rebates as a near-term affordability measure.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • The recent Santa Ana conditions that impacted California over the last week have abated, leaving a transitional weather pattern to take hold across the West. A weak upper-level low pressure system diving down the West Coast is expected to pull in tropical moisture, triggering cooler temperatures and scattered showers across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs will largely reset to the seasonal 60s and 70s across California, while the Desert Southwest retains some residual warmth in the 80s. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies will experience mild, tranquil autumn conditions with daytime highs ranging from the 50s to the 60s; however, overnight lows dropping into the 30s in colder interior locations will prompt some early heating demand. Looking further ahead into late October and early November, the broader national weather landscape appears exceptionally mild, signaling a period of low weather-driven energy demand across the larger western interconnect.
  • On the natural gas front, regional fundamentals remain loose as California’s combined storage balances continued their steady build through the weekend. PG&E’s aggregate balance has climbed to approx. 170.6 Bcf, while SoCalGas inventories rose to 103.6 Bcf. This high storage environment has kept PG&E’s gate to the city trading at a premium over SoCal’s gate, as northern operators actively work to absorb arriving molecules into storage while the southern grid grapples with depressed power burn. Moving into late October, upcoming maintenance outages are likely to heavily constrain SoCalGas operations. The Honor Rancho facility begins an outage taking 0.25 Bcf/d of injection capability offline, quickly followed by a major maintenance window at Aliso Canyon from the 25th through November 10th that will shut in 0.55 Bcf/d of injection and 1.85 Bcf/d of withdrawal capacity. Given that the current cooling trend will naturally taper injection activity as withdrawal season approaches, this Aliso Canyon window leaves the southern grid highly exposed to sudden inventory bottlenecks and vulnerable to a SoCal price shock should an early cold snap surprise the region.
  • CAISO dispatchers are preparing for a shift as dropping temperatures drop peak demands toward seasonal norms, aggravating transmission congestion risks. In the day ahead market, the spread between NP15 and SP15 peak period prices will re-emerge, reflecting a sharp South-to-North congestion bottleneck. Minimal midday power demand combined with robust southern renewable gen will place immense downward pressure on SP15 pricing, lifting the near-term risk of solar curtailments during peak solar hours, a window that is getting shorter quickly. This congestion risk is expected to intensify by early next week as forecast highs in Burbank ease to 63o and Sacramento drops into the low 50s. Grid operators must balance this weak demand profile against a reshaped thermal stack; Diablo Canyon Unit 1 went offline on October 10 for delayed planned maintenance, leaving the wider Western Interconnection with reduced baseload flexibility during the evening ramp.
  • Need to cut your household electric spend? The Governor signed SB 868 (the "Plug and Play Solar Act") into law on September 30, officially making California the 10th U.S. state to legalize small plug-in "balcony solar" systems. System capacity is capped at 1,200 watts and the fractional MWh are strictly intended to offset a household's personal, real-time consumption, since the bill doesn’t establish rules for exporting excess power to the grid. The law creates a massive opening for clean energy adoption across California’s residential market geared towards apartment renters and condo owners who cannot install traditional, permanent rooftop solar setups. And it leaves open the possibility that one could also install a fusion-based power generation system for household use at some point.

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