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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of August 24, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt-month natural gas settled at $2.78, up $.01 on Monday, August 24.
  • One week ago, prompt-month natural gas settled at $2.69/MMbtu, on Monday, August 17.
  • Two weeks ago, prompt-month natural gas settled at $2.79/MMbtu, on Monday, August 10.
  • Prompt-month crude oil (WTI) settled at $81.94/bbl., down $3.07 on Monday, August 24.
  • One week ago, prompt-month crude oil (WTI) settled at $84.50/bbl., on Monday, August 17.
  • Two weeks ago, prompt-month crude oil (WTI) settled at $82.13/bbl., on Monday, August 10.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral/Bearish

  • Production of natural gas continues to grind to the upside.  August has averaged 111.4 Bcf per day, an all-time record and 3.4 Bcf per day higher than the same period last year.
  • Production is supported by a forward price curve for 2027 and 2028 at $3.50/MMbtu, higher crude oil prices and favorable (to producers) natural gas liquids pricing.
  • End of season storage inventory forecasts are near record levels.
  • Summer weather and attendant electric power generation are past their peak and the trend-line for power generation is sloping downward with the advent of September.
  • LNG feedgas, month-to-date averaged 18.2 Bcf per day, somewhat below expectations, but up 1.9 Bcf per day over the same period last year.
  • Near-dated natural gas futures are weak as rising production and ample storage inventories weigh against LNG exports and summer power-generation demand.
  • 2027-2031 strip prices settled yesterday (8/24) at $3.30, $3.70, $3.70, $3.64, $3.60/MMbtu respectively.
  • 2027-2031 strip prices last week (8/17) settled at $3.28, $3.67, $3.68, $3.62, $3.57/MMbtu respectively.

Crude Oil - Bullish

  • Point of Clarification: The "Bullish" moniker above will remain in place until further notice as the situation in the Persian Gulf remains highly unstable.
  • Prompt-month crude (WTI) settled at $81.94, down $3.07.
  • The U.S. expanded sanctions aimed at Iran's oil trade with particular pressure on China, Iran's largest oil customer.  Iranian exports to China have reportedly fallen dramatically, from roughly 1.6 million barrels per day in February to 534,000 barrels per day in August. 
  • There is considerable uncertainty about how much oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz with commercial tanker trackers reporting substantially less traffic than U.S. government estimates.
  • U.S. refiners have been operating at very high levels over a long period driven by strong product margins and tight fuel markets.  Reuters describes this as a "stress test" for the U.S. refining system with the implication that maintenance-driven disruptions could have an outsized effect on refined-product pricing action.
  • EIA estimates that global crude oil inventories fell 4.2 million barrels per day in Q2 and expects another 3.8 million barrels per day draw down in Q3.
  • EIA forecasts Brent crude to average $87/bbl., for 2026 versus $69 in 2025.

Economy - Neutral

  • Consumer confidence fell from 90.2 to 89.4 in August, a seven-month low.
  • The 30-year mortgage remains around 6.77%.
  • The housing market is a weak section in the U.S. economy as revised new home sales for July fell 10.5% month-over-month. 
  • Q2 GDP, estimated at 1.5% annualized will be revised tomorrow (as is typical). 
  • Tomorrow, the most updated data on PCE inflation, Core inflation, July durable goods orders, and Q2 GDP will be published.
  • The Federal Reserve will host its annual Jackson Hole meeting on Friday.
  • Q2 non-residential fixed investment increased at 8.4% (annualized), indicating strong performance in construction with a heavy emphasis on data center infrastructure.
  • Treasury's economic analysis estimates that business investment increased 10% in the first half of 2026 versus last year as higher interest rates have not caused companies to pull back on capital expenditures.

Weather - Neutral

  • Temperatures north of the Mason-Dixon line will be on the mild side through the remainder of this week, mostly in the very low 80s before getting a bump to the upside next week to more seasonal levels.
  • The heat in Southeast will wane to more seasonal levels.
  • Texas remains very hot.
  • Heat will build in the Northwest.

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending August 14 are 3,169 Bcf; an injection of 16 Bcf was reported for the week ending August 14. Stocks were 28 Bcf lower than this time last year and 185 Bcf above the five-year-average.
Values reflect week ending Aug. 21, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending Aug. 21, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices remained stable over the past week, as overall electricity demand declined due to the decreased power burn associated with less AC load.  The September NYMEX natural gas contract bounced back on Friday as intense heat across most of the country outshined the weight of plump supply that had bogged down the market the previous session.  This week, a trough will support milder conditions across the eastern United States as the heat ridge retrogrades into the West.  As we move into next week, the eastern trough will lift out, allowing the western heat to advance eastward in a modified form.  Above-normal temperatures will first spread into the Mid-Continent before reaching the South and East. The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2031 calendar strips were unchanged over the past week, on average, but were -2% higher for the near-terms 2027/28, while being -2% lower for the outer terms 2030/31. The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price for August in West Hub is $53.82/MWh which is -40% lower than July’s final settlement price average of $89.78/MWh.
  • Pennsylvania Governor Signs Executive Order on Data Centers - On 8/18, Governor Shapiro signed an Executive Order (EO) mandating that data center developers sign a Project Consent Order and Agreement and adhere to the Shapiro Administration's Governor’s Responsible Infrastructure Development (GRID) standards.  At the press conference and EO signing, Shapiro described the EO as “the strictest in the nation.”  Announced by the Governor in May, the GRID framework was an incentive-based approach that provided faster permitting and tax incentives for data centers that paid for incremental power resources, obtained community support, met enhanced transparency and environmental standards, and committed to significant investment, job creation, and workforce development.  Under the EO, the GRID standards have evolved into a mandatory set of requirements for data center developers to follow or face significant delays to receiving state permits.  The EO also includes requirements that align state policy with PJM's recently proposed Reliability Backstop Auction and curtailment framework.

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices continue to be stable as overall electricity demand declined due to the decreased power burn associated with less AC load.  The September NYMEX natural gas contract bounced back on Friday as intense heat across most of the country outshined the weight of plump supply that had bogged down the market the previous session.  This week, a trough will support milder conditions across the eastern United States as the heat ridge retrogrades into the West. As we move into next week, the eastern trough will lift out, allowing the western heat to advance eastward in a modified form.  Above-normal temperatures will first spread into the Mid-Continent before reaching the South and East. The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2031 calendar strips were unchanged over the past week, on average, but were 2% higher for the near-terms 2027/28, while being -1% lower for the outer terms 2030/31.  The current, month-to-date day-ahead settlement price average for August in COMED is $40.15/MWh or is -40% lower than July’s final price of $67.08/MWh, while that average price in AdHub is $46.58/MWh or is -36% lower than July’s average price of $72.31/MWh.  In Michigan the current month-to-date price average is $45.31/MWh or is -40% lower than the prior month settlement average of $75.46/MWh, while in Ameren the average price so far for the month is $42.00/MWh or is -39% lower than last month’s $68.82/MWh final settlement average price.
  • MISO Files ZGIA Proposal at FERC - On 8/19, MISO filed its Zero-Injection Generation Interconnection proposal (ER26-3552) at FERC to support generation co-located with large loads. The proposal creates a new service for generators serving load at the same substation and voltage level, provided they do not inject into the broader MISO transmission system except in limited transient cases and the load remains normal network load under existing tariff rules. ZGIA resources may participate in MISO’s energy market based on technology and configuration, while capacity credits are capped by the associated load and must be used in a Fixed Resource Adequacy Plan or Reliability-Based Demand Curve opt-out to avoid affecting the broader capacity market. Eligible requests must show a commercial arrangement with the load and a commitment to use the facility’s output for at least five years. MISO requested an effective date of 10/18, with interventions and comments due 9/8.

Northeast Energy Summary

  • After a bit of a lull and what may appear to be a buying opportunity over the past two weeks, New England energy forward prices rebounded from 6-week low and moved about 2% higher across the '27-'30 calendar strips last week. We may have seen the return of the strong, positive correlation between the Dutch TTF contract price and New England forward energy prices because the region's reliability of liquified natural gas during the cold winter months and the need to pay the global market price to financially incentivize LNG cargoes to New England. The prompt month Dutch TTF has eclipsed its year-to-date high and now trades just above $22/MMBtu as buying has picked up across Europe and Asia in a race to refill storage inventories ahead of winter. We also may have seen an end to a technical phenomenon where sparse buying participation in the market may have contributed to the previous dip in prices (more sellers than buyers); as we head into the finish of August vacations are over and book-squaring is the task at hand.
  • The New England States Committee on Electricity (NESCOE), representing five of the six New England states, issued a joint statement expressing significant concern over NextEra Energy’s proposed acquisition of Dominion Energy and urging robust review by FERC, the Department of Justice, and other regulators.  NESCOE argues that the transaction would concentrate an unprecedented level of generation ownership, including both of New England’s nuclear facilities (Seabrook and Millstone), while also creating a dominant owner of natural gas, renewable, battery storage, and transmission-related assets.  The states contend that this concentration could increase market power, reduce competition, and give a single company greater leverage over future regional reliability, resource adequacy, and infrastructure development decisions.  For New England, the states’ concerns are driven largely by reliability and transmission policy.  NESCOE cites NextEra’s past opposition to the New England Clean Energy Connect project and Dominion’s prior efforts to obtain out-of-market support for Millstone as evidence that the combined company could exercise significant influence over critical infrastructure and regulatory outcomes.  If regulators adopt NESCOE’s concerns, the transaction could face extensive review, mitigation requirements, or other conditions that may shape future market structure and investment decisions across the region. 
  • Audrey Zibelman Appointed NYSERDA Board Chair - Governor Kathy Hochul appointed Audrey Zibelman as Chair of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) Board of Directors. Zibelman brings more than 35 years of global energy, regulatory, operations and governance experience. She also has international experience having served as CEO of the Australian Energy Market Operator. Her appointment signals continued momentum behind New York’s all-of-the-above clean energy strategy and reinforces NYSERDA’s role in advancing affordability, reliability, innovation, and economic development. 

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • SoCal has largely been immune to exceptionally hot temperatures thus far this summer as Burbank has only seen highs above 95° just 11 times since June 1. The last complete week of August is going out in all its blazing hot glory as a strong ridge is anchored over the Four Corners region producing some of the hottest temperatures of the season for the LA Basin with daytime highs flirting with the century mark at the Burbank airport for the balance of this week. Daytime high records will be challenged in Phoenix where the numbers look to climb into the mid-110s as each day will be within a couple degrees of a record. In Vegas, end of week highs will be in the upper 100s, as Wednesday looks to tie the daily record of 109° while Thursday and Friday are expected to fall just a degree or two short of the daily record of 110°. Almost as impressive as triple digits are for driving demand in the daytime, overnights across the region could also set records this week and the desert cities struggle to drop *below* 100° after dark and lows at the Burbank airport could set records four out of the next six days with the daily record low being broken by 10°+ on Thursday and Friday. Relief looks to arrive this weekend as a trough will begin to dig into the Pacific Northwest, bringing some cooler final days of the month and early Sept dipping down as far as NorCal, while SoCal and the Desert Southwest cities go from really hot to moderately hot.
  • As Burbank flirts with the century mark and Sacramento holds in the low to mid-90s, peak loads at the CAISO look set to break the 43 GW mark Tuesday through Thursday this week, notable in that loads have only breached this level a couple times this summer, and not in a back-to-back sequence mid-week. California gas demand has jumped up sharply over the last week, but imports have prevented much of storage change for SoCalGas, still holding at about the 99 Bcf level, while PG&E has seen about 3.5 Bcf come out of its caverns, down to 169 Bcf as of yesterday. City gate prices for Tuesday were up about a quarter over the weekend settlement, running ~$3.75 at PG&E and ~$4.40 at SoCal. The risk is to the upside for daily settles this week as the temperature forecast is biased to overdeliver. 
  • As the longest hot weather streak of the summer is right in front of us, it is bound to put upward pressure on the CAISO day-ahead auction prints – and sure enough, it did, as SP15 results were up over $18 to $77.31 MWh during peak hours for flow today while NP15 was only up a little over a dollar to $57.40. Strong prices, but not at distressed levels. Real time settles will be highly sensitive to surprise outages of generators or the interties. With only two prior days this summer having cleared 43 GW, three back-to-back weekdays above that level will keep grid dispatchers on their toes. As noted above for the gas market, given the way the heat is locked in over the region this week the bias is to the upside for day ahead and real time prices as the CAISO will be leaning on the thermal units to meet cooling demand. Another thing that all this sunshine has delivered over the past week has been a series of new solar generation highs. Four of the Top 5 days for solar production have been in the last week with the latest high print on last Weds at 23.8 GW, which is a massive offset to natural gas or import needs in the midday period.

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