Print

NOTE: We will not be sending the Energy Market Update the week of December 1. We will return to our send schedule the week of December 8.

Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of November 24, 2025

By The Numbers:

  • Prompt month NYMEX natural gas settled at $4.55/MMbtu, down $.03 on Monday, November 24.
  • Prompt month NYMEX natural gas settled at $4.36/MMbtu, on Monday, November 17.
  • Prompt-month NYMEX natural gas settled at $4.33/MMbtu, on Monday, November 10.
  • Prompt-month NYMEX natural gas settled at $4.27/MMbtu, on Monday, November 3.
  • Prompt-month crude oil settled at $58.84/bbl., up $.78 on Monday, November 24.
  • Prompt-month crude oil settled at $59.91/bbl, on Monday, November 17.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral/Bullish

  • Cold air moves into the picture in the eastern half of the U.S. starting this week and continuing through the first week of December.  The pattern currently favors a cold December.
  • Storage at 3.9 plus Tcf is a check on early winter upside pricing action.
  • Production is surging into the end of the year with an all-time high of 109.3 Bcf posted on November 23.
  • Production month-to-date averaged 108.1 Bcf/d versus 101.2 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Surging production is also a near-term check to early winter upside pricing action.
  • Next week January will be prompt, the winter forecasts will continue to gel, and pricing action will conform to winter forecasts in the very near term. 
  • LNG exports are also surging breaching the 18 Bcf per day mark month-to-date versus 13.5 Bcf per day for the same period last year.

Crude Oil - Neutral

  • NYMEX (WTI) prompt-month crude settled at $58.84/bbl., on Monday, down $.78.
  • Oil prices extended losses early Tuesday after news broke that Ukraine has "mostly" agreed to a peace deal.
  • No word from Russia on the status of a peace deal as of this writing.
  • Rumors of a deal have oil trending down modestly as traders anticipate the potential for reducing Russian sanctions.
  • Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 crude oil forecast to $53.

Economy - Neutral

  • U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in September, lower than expected.
  • U.S. home prices rose in September, though the pace of growth continued to slow as elevated mortgage rates and high prices crimp demand.
  • The Federal Government will release Q3 GDP data in December.
  • Several Federal Reserve bankers have said there is "no urgency" to cut rates in December.

Weather - Neutral/Bullish

  • Cold air moves into the Midwest the day before Thanksgiving.
  • The cold spills over to the East Coast.
  • The first week of December gets decidedly colder-than-normal across the eastern two thirds of the country.
  • Constellation's December forecast is "colder than normal."
  • A cold December would be a departure from the past 12 years where December was decidedly warmer than normal.

Weekly Natural Gas Report:

 
  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending November 14 are 3,946 Bcf; a withdrawal of 14 Bcf was reported for the week ending November 14.
  • Gas inventories are 146 Bcf above the five-year average and 23 Bcf less than the same time last year. 
Values reflect week ending Nov. 21, 2025
Prices reflect week ending Nov. 21, 2025

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were relatively unchanged, on average, over the past week but saw a little bit of price support on the front of the price curve, with the increase in natural gas prices in the near-term.  Colder weather forecasts and record LNG exports have been the main demand drivers in a market that has record gas production and surplus inventory levels.  A battle is developing between ridging over the Southeast, which brings milder air, and upstream signals that are trying to push cold air farther south and east. We are seeing this play out this week with the Thanksgiving cold front arriving sooner and appearing somewhat stronger. This will be followed by a milder start to December in the East.  Cold air remains nearby however, to the north and back toward the Mid-continent, and it could move back in during the 11-15 day term. Index settlement prices continue to be higher over the past month with cooler temperatures.  Forward power prices for the 2026-2030 terms were unchanged, on average week-over-week, but saw a 1% increase in the 2026-27 terms and a -2% decrease in the 2030 term.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in West Hub is $55.93/MWh, which is 9% higher than last month and 84% higher than a year ago.
  • PJM Releases Information on Large Load Additions for the 2026 Load Forecast - On 11/19, PJM posted materials for the 11/24 Load Analysis Subcommittee (LAS) meeting at which PJM will review the proposed large load adjustments for the 2026 load forecast.  During the September LAS meeting, distribution companies and load serving entities presented their 2026 large load adjustments requests.  PJM has since applied its own criteria to the load requests dividing the adjustments into “firm” and “non-firm” categories.  Only the “firm” large load adjustments will be allowed to impact the capacity market, while the “non-firm” adjustments will be included in the longer-dated load forecast after further evaluation under ramp and utilization guidelines and adjustment to reflect national constraints. The proposed large load adjustment aligns closely to the large loads already included in the 2025 load forecast through ~2032.  The final 2026 load forecast is expected in January 2026.

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were relatively unchanged, on average, over the past week but saw a little bit of price support on the front of the price curve, with the increase in natural gas prices in the near-term.  Colder weather forecasts and record LNG exports have been the main demand drivers in a market that has record gas production and surplus inventory levels.  A battle is developing between ridging over the Southeast, which brings milder air, and upstream signals that are trying to push cold air farther south and east. We are seeing this play out this week with the Thanksgiving cold front arriving sooner and appearing somewhat stronger. This will be followed by a milder start to December in the East.  Cold air remains nearby however, to the north and back toward the Mid-continent, and it could move back in during the 11-15 day term.  Forward power prices for the 2026-2029 terms were unchanged on the week, with a slight -2% decrease in the 2030 term.  Index settlement prices continue to be higher over the past month with cooler temperatures.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in COMED is $38.38/MWh, which is 10% higher than last month, while those same averages in AdHub are $49.14/MWh, which is only 1% higher than last month.  In Michigan those same monthly prices are averaging $42.81/MWh or 7% higher vs. October, while the settlement prices in Ameren are averaging $38.45/MWh, or are 9% higher than last month.
  • PJM Releases Information on Large Load Additions for the 2026 Load Forecast - On 11/19, PJM posted materials for the 11/24 Load Analysis Subcommittee (LAS) meeting at which PJM will review the proposed large load adjustments for the 2026 load forecast.  During the September LAS meeting, distribution companies and load serving entities presented their 2026 large load adjustments requests.  PJM has since applied its own criteria to the load requests dividing the adjustments into “firm” and “non-firm” categories.  Only the “firm” large load adjustments will be allowed to impact the capacity market, while the “non-firm” adjustments will be included in the longer-dated load forecast after further evaluation under ramp and utilization guidelines and adjustment to reflect national constraints. The proposed large load adjustment aligns closely to the large loads already included in the 2025 load forecast through ~2032.  The final 2026 load forecast is expected in January 2026.

Northeast Energy Summary

  • On November 12, the New Hampshire Department of Energy (NH DOE) released their Renewable Portfolio Standard 2025 Review, the last review of the RPS program required by New Hampshire’s RPS law.  The report provides a detailed background of the program, the objectives of the program, the impact the program had on promoting development of renewable energy resources in New Hampshire, and recommended policy changes to further advance the goals of the RPS program.  The review notes that New Hampshire does not have as aggressive RPS obligations as other New England states, as New Hampshire has prioritized balancing renewable energy goals while avoiding undue burdens on ratepayers.  The review concludes that the program succeeds in achieving this balance as New Hampshire has seen growth in renewable energy resources but maintains lower electricity prices than the average New England rate in all but one of the last 7 years. The review also includes five suggested legislative policy recommendations.  First, the review recommends establishing a Class III RPS obligation of 5% and removing the ability for the DOE to review and lower the obligation as necessary.  Current law sets the obligation for Class III resources, including methane and biogas, at 8% and allows the DOE to lower the obligation to 0.5% if it determines not enough Class III RECs are produced to meet the obligations of suppliers.  The review claims setting the obligation at 5% and removing the ability to lower the obligations will provide market certainty. The department has typically lowered the obligations to 0.5-1%.  Second, the review suggests that the state amends the RPS statute to require a review of the RPS program again in 2030, 2035, and 2040 to ensure the program is still functioning to meet policy objectives.  Currently, the 2025 Review is the last one required by state law.  Third, the review advises the state maintains the ability to count net metered facilities that are not REC-registered to count towards RPS compliance.  The review claims this would prevent unnecessary costs being passed on to ratepayers.  Fourth, the review notes that the state should examine whether the final 25.2% obligation should be maintained, increased, or decreased beyond 2025 to align with the state’s 10-year energy strategy.  Finally, the review suggests the state consider adopting or integrating a Clean Energy Standard into the RPS framework to account for low/zero-carbon energy resources that fit within the policy objectives of the RPS.  The report says this will help maintain existing resources such as hydropower facilities but also help promote the development of small modular nuclear reactors. 
  • On 11/12, in a court filing, New York State announced the postponement of its All-Electric Buildings Act, requiring all new residential buildings under seven stories and commercial buildings under 100,000 square feet to be all-electric starting in January 2026. The law’s suspension will last at least 120 days after a federal appeals court decision, unless further appealed. Electrification of the New York economy has been a driver of the state’s growing grid reliability concerns, documented in the NYISO’s planning studies, who forecast reliability shortfalls in New York City as soon as next summer. The decision to suspend implementation disappointed some environmental advocates in the state, as the Hochul Administration also granted key permits for the Northeast Supply Enhancement pipeline on 11/14 and struck a settlement deal with the gas-powered Greenidge crypto mining operation. 
  • NYISO recently released its 2025-2026 Winter Assessment and expects sufficient winter capacity margins assuming all firm fuel generation is available under both normal and extreme weather conditions.  The assessment found that 29,893 MW of power resources are available to meet a forecasted peak demand of 24,200 MW. Last winter, peak demand reached 23,521 MW on January 22, 2025.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • We are entering a challenging period in the weather pattern, with cold and mild air in close proximity. This means that even small changes in patterns can result in significant shifts in energy demand. That will play out over the next two weeks as generally mild air over California will bring highs into the 60s & 70s while the Pacific Northwest sees 50s, then gives way to a Thanksgiving weekend cold front over the Rockies while the Golden State fades to merely normal temperatures across the major population centers into early December. Last week while temperatures were on the colder side of normal and precipitation was in the forecast, that combination brought snow to the Sierra which lifted snow water equivalent values up to 71% of normal (average was 37% the prior week). This upswing looks to be temporary as the next two weeks appear dry, which will limit the opportunity for additional snow and will likely result in reductions. More importantly, for West region power, overall hydro generation in the PNW has been stable this month, but that is not to say that the region has seen no changes in hydro-relevant conditions. November had a fairly wet start, but things have dried up significantly in recent days. While this has not had much impact on current flows or generation, a slow start could have implications for later in the water yr as unregulated water flows are the top driver of generation from the hydro system over the course of the water year. The recent decline seems like a return to the pattern of three very dry years in a row.
  • Natural gas prices in California will be sensitive to fluctuations in weather as rescomm heating and power burns respond to fluctuating demand, but colder temperatures will also bring freeze-offs into the conversation. The current weather forecast does not look capable of driving such supply disruptions but a little shift in the jet stream could bring that conversation to the forefront. At the moment, the energy complex seems to be deflating amid hopes of a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions. Ukraine has agreed to consider U.S. proposals aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict with Russia, which is sending a bearish wave through energy markets. On the storage front, PG&E’s caverns are running well above the last two years by about 8 Bcf at 184 Bcf. SoCalGas saw some impressive draws from storage last week as cooler wet weather lifted heating and cut into solar output, their storage has fallen to levels inline with those of the last two yrs at 105 Bcf. SoCalGas just updated its maintenance schedule and aside from some minor inspection curtailments in the Topock subzone that will wrap by mid-Dec, operations otherwise appear as all-systems-go until late in the winter.
  • The Western Resource Adequacy Program (WRAP), is a program of the Western Power Pool intended as “the first regional reliability planning and compliance program in the history of the West.” It is quite new: planning began in 2018 with a rollout (sort of) beginning in 2020. It has two main sections which establish common methods for long-term planning and short-term operations. The Forward Showing Program is the long-term planning component of WRAP. This is an effort to standardize long-term capacity planning efforts across participants. Essentially, it prescribes certain aspects of long-term demand modeling, so that everyone is planning in a consistent manner. For example, it establishes deadlines for completing planning activities each year, so that everyone’s calendar lines up. The Operations Program creates short-term power-sharing commitments. It creates a centralized monitoring of the load-resource balance across WRAP participants. Then, it requires all participants to procure load forecasts for real-time, day-ahead, and six days beyond day-ahead. Each participant then commits to sharing resources on these time horizons. Slated to move to binding operations for the Winter 2027-2028 period, 16 entities have signed on to participate and can be found here.

Stay up-to-date on the latest energy news and information:

Coming soon from Constellation Customer Insights: Help us provide you with greater service by completing our online study later this month. For a limited time, eligible customers can choose to accept an incentive for taking the time to provide feedback.

  • Energy Market Intel Webinar - Register for our next market update webinar on Wednesday, December 17 at 2 p.m. ET when the CMG team will provide insights on market factors currently affecting energy prices, such as weather, gas storage and production, and domestic and global economic conditions.
  • Fortunato & Friends Webcast - Stay tuned for information regarding our next Fortunato & Friends webinar featuring Constellation's Chief Economist and a special guest
  • Energy Terms to Know - Learn important power, gas and weather terms.
  • Sustainability Assessment - We invite you to complete a brief assessment that helps us learn where your company is in building and/or implementing a sustainability plan. Through these insights, Constellation can customize solutions to meet your needs.
  • Subscription Center - Sign up to receive updates on the latest market trends.

Questions? Please reach out to our Commodities Management Group at CMG@constellation.com.