NOTE: We will not be sending the Energy Market Update the week of 10/13 due to the holiday. We will return the week of 10/20.

Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of October 6, 2025

By The Numbers:

  • Prompt-month NYMEX natural gas settled at $3.36/MMbtu, up $.03 on Monday, October 6.
  • Prompt-month crude oil settled at $61.69/bbl., up $.81 on Monday, October 6.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral

  • Weather for the coming week is neutral with a bullish lean. A brief cold front will move through the northern tier bringing some frost and freeze warnings.  Some modest heating load will appear for a few days. 
  • The southern tier will get a break from the latent summer-like heat and air-conditioning loads will diminish as a result.  The lower power demand in the south will be largely offset with some heating demand in the northern tier.
  • Production of natural gas, month-to-date, averaged 106.3 Bcf per day, versus 100.8 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Production is down today at 104 Bcf per day largely due to maintenance in the Permian and Marcellus.
  • Gas demand for power generation month-to-date averaged 36.6 Bcf per day versus 38.4 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Gas demand for residential/commercial use averaged 9.2 Bcf per day month-to-date versus 9.9 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Industrial consumption this month averaged 21.7 Bcf per day versus 22 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • LNG exports averaged 16.1 Bcf per day month-to-date versus 12.2 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Exports to Mexico averaged 5.8 Bcf per day month-to-date versus 6 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • With November now prompt, weather sensitivity will increase relative to winter forecasts or any hints of colder air.
  • Storage inventories are forecast at 3.9 trillion cubic feet or slightly more, an amount considered "full" for the coming winter season.
  • The 2026-2030 five year strip averaged $3.86 in mid June.  It is $3.83 this morning.  All of the downside pricing action over the past 60 days has been vested in the near-dated futures contracts with nearly zero movement in the back.

Crude Oil - Neutral

  • NYMEX (WTI) prompt-month-crude settled at $61.69/bbl., up $.81, on Monday, October 6.
  • OPEC agreed to a smaller-than-expected increase to production (137,000 bbls per day) for November matching Octobers pace.
  • Generally, the market is considered to be well supplied.
  • The prevailing sentiment in the crude oil market is described as "bearish," according to Reuters.
  • Crude is currently trading near $61 per barrel.
  • A recent Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian refinery has the facility closed for a month. Events like these keep some support in the market.
  • Global crude oil demand is sluggish.
  • China is adding oil storage at breakneck speed helping to absorb some of the global over-supply.

Economy - Neutral

  • The U.S. Government shut down closes out its first week.
  • There is no jobs report this week as the Government is shut down.
  • Treasury Secretary Bessent said U.S. GDP could be negatively affected because of the shutdown.
  • There is talk of accelerating rate cuts as a result of the shutdown.
  • The core inflation rate held at 2.9% in August.
  • Jobless claims at the end of September were 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week and generally better than expected.

Weather - Neutral

  • A brief cold snap will move through the northern tier with some frost and freeze warnings, something typical for this time of year.
  • Latent summer-like heat in the South will moderate.
  • The West will be colder-than-normal.

Weekly Natural Gas Report:

 
  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending September 26 are 3,561 Bcf; an injection of 53 Bcf was reported for the week ending September 26.
  • Gas inventories are 171 Bcf above the five-year average and 21 Bcf more than the same time last year. 
Values reflect week ending Oct. 3, 2025
Prices reflect week ending Oct. 3, 2025

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were, again, slightly higher this past week as natural gas prices have seen recent price support from cooling weather forecasts, higher LNG export demand as well as lower production.  The latest weather models picked up a small heating degree day gain over the weekend, as a stronger cold front moves across the eastern half of the nation this week.  This will result in a few days of below-normal temperatures and some overnight heating demand.  Power forward prices were 1% higher over the past week for the 2026-2030 term.  Prices this time of year tend to consolidate as they wait for some guidance from weather forecasts that start showing the first signs of peak season winter demand.  The final, day-ahead settlement price in West Hub for the month of September was $41.57/MWh, which is 16% higher than last month and 34% higher than a year ago.
  • PJM IMM Reports Data Centers Increase Capacity Costs by Over $7 Billion - On 10/1, PJM’s Independent Market Monitor (IMM) published Part A in an analysis series on the results of the 2026/27 capacity auction conducted in July 2025. The report compares numerous “but-for” scenarios in an attempt to calculate the impact of data center load growth on the capacity market.  The IMM re-calculates 2026/27 auction results under several hypotheticals keeping all other variables unchanged: removal of the current price collar in place; if a demand curve the IMM prefers had been used; if there had been no data center growth from large load adjustments; if there had never been any data centers in the region; and, combinations of  the various hypotheticals. The IMM states that data center growth was the primary reason for higher capacity prices in PJM stating that the $16.1 billion in 2026/27 capacity market revenues would have been 82.1%, or $7.3 billion, lower if no data centers existed in the region. The IMM acknowledges that the price collar reduced capacity market revenues by 19.7%, or $3.2 billion, compared to what auction results would otherwise have been.  However, the IMM’s analysis does not reflect other scenarios such as avoided generator retirements, and therefore higher amounts of available capacity, had PJM’s market been more accurately valuing higher-reliability resources in prior years. 

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were, again, slightly higher this past week as natural gas prices have seen recent price support from cooling weather forecasts, higher LNG export demand as well as lower production.  The latest weather models picked up a small heating degree day gain over the weekend, as a stronger cold front moves across the eastern half of the nation this week. This will result in a few days of below-normal temperatures and some overnight heating demand.  Power forward prices were 1% higher over the past week for the 2026-2030 term.  Prices this time of year tend to consolidate as they wait for some guidance from weather forecasts that start showing the first signs of peak season winter demand.  The final, day-ahead settlement price in COMED for the month of September was $36.84/MWh, which is -1% lower than last month, while in AdHub that final monthly price was $39.75/MWh or 10% higher than last month.  In Michigan the final, day-ahead settlement price average for September was $39.78/MWh or was -7% lower than August, while Ameren’s final price of $38.77/MWh was -3% lower than last month.
  • PJM IMM Reports Data Centers Increase Capacity Costs by Over $7 Billion - On 10/1, PJM’s Independent Market Monitor (IMM) published Part A in an analysis series on the results of the 2026/27 capacity auction conducted in July 2025. The report compares numerous “but-for” scenarios in an attempt to calculate the impact of data center load growth on the capacity market.  The IMM re-calculates 2026/27 auction results under several hypotheticals keeping all other variables unchanged: removal of the current price collar in place; if a demand curve the IMM prefers had been used; if there had been no data center growth from large load adjustments; if there had never been any data centers in the region; and, combinations of the various hypotheticals. The IMM states that data center growth was the primary reason for higher capacity prices in PJM stating that the $16.1 billion in 2026/27 capacity market revenues would have been 82.1%, or $7.3 billion, lower if no data centers existed in the region. The IMM acknowledges that the price collar reduced capacity market revenues by 19.7%, or $3.2 billion, compared to what auction results would otherwise have been.  However, the IMM’s analysis does not reflect other scenarios such as avoided generator retirements, and therefore higher amounts of available capacity, had PJM’s market been more accurately valuing higher-reliability resources in prior years. 

Northeast Energy Summary

  • A quick review of the summer’s (and September’s) New England day-ahead index settlement show monthly averages relatively subdued (with the exception of July )as low regional natural gas prices and a lack of unplanned outages led to favorable power prices. On a monthly average basis, June through September averaged 44, 70, 46, and $34/MWh, respectively. With corresponding Algonquin (New England delivered) natural gas averaging 2.88, 4.23, 2.59, and $2.00/MMBtu, respectively. October-to-date is in the same lower-end range for both power and natural gas at $36/MWh and $2.24/MMBtu. Year-to-date day-ahead power is averaging $61.70/MWh, a full $20 above 2024’s Jan-Dec average of $41.35/MWh. The balance of the year may bring up the 2025 average with increased seasonal heating demand expected which will likely lead to higher hourly prints. Additionally, any occurrences of significant cold shots would elevate index settlements. Any customers exposed to the floating index market should understand these budgetary and cost risks heading into the winter. 
  • On 9/26, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) announced the launch of its latest Tier 1 large-scale Renewable Energy Credit (REC) solicitation to reignite the state’s stalled development of renewable energy projects, support its climate objectives and drive economic development.  NYSERDA aims to procure 5.6 million Tier 1 RECs annually through 20-year contracts, focusing on shovel-ready renewable energy projects that can access expiring federal tax credits.  The announcement follows similar procurement activities in other northeastern U.S. states, such as Maine and Connecticut, that have issued expedited Requests for Proposals (RFPs) to secure advanced renewable energy projects that can qualify for the expiring federal tax credits.  Eligibility applications are due by 10/21 and bid proposals are due by 12/4.  NYSERDA will host a webinar on 10/2 to guide potential proposers through the submission process.  Initial reward notifications are expected in February 2026. The RFP includes component cost indexing, labor provisions, stakeholder engagement requirements, Disadvantaged Community commitments, agricultural land preservation under the Host Community Benefit Program, incremental upgrade and repowering facilities, and varying contract terms as applicable to specific types of facilities.  To expedite contracting, NYSERDA has also streamlined bid requirements.  Key requirements for participation include evidence of progress in NYISO interconnection cluster study process or equivalent; awareness of permitting requirements and timeline for obtaining permits; and demonstrated experience of developing a renewable generation facility of similar or larger scale.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • Over the weekend we had colder changes across the West and an increase in heating demand in the forecast for the middle of October. Before that, dry and warm weather will remain throughout the West for the next couple of days with temperatures well above normal. This will translate into highs in the 60s and 70s along the coast; 80s inland with some 90s in the Deserts. A cool front will approach the coast on Thursday/Friday, then gradually push south and eastward. This will bring temperatures down along the coast this weekend. A stronger cool front will move in from western Canada over the weekend and bring below normal temps to much of the West early next week. Solar generation will be 90-100% of capacity through Weds this week. A few high clouds will drift across the farms on Thursday, reducing output slightly to 75-90% of capacity. Clouds will thicken by Friday-Saturday with output averaging 25-40% of capacity then increase back to normal next week. Although not typically the strongest period for wind generation, the fall can be the most volatile. Santa Ana winds are a screaming example, where pressure differences can cause a freight train of wind that downslopes on a west/southwest direction into SoCal. This means that it is not unusual to see output swings from near-zero levels of generation to levels that near the nameplate capacity of the farm.
  • Cooler temperatures moving into the Golden State this week will push the power demand profile lower while heating demand remains minimal. The combination of mild loads and strong solar output plus the occasional burst of wind generation is bringing California back to the grid conditions we reported on extensively this spring. This setup produces a binding constraint on the CAISO grid in the S to N direction that opens a wide spread in prices between NP15 and SP15 in both the day ahead and real time markets and curtailments of renewable sources, mainly solar, soar. Peak period prices in the day ahead market on both Saturday and Sunday separated to the level of $27 MWh putting SP15 around $10 while NP15 cleared closer to $40 MWh. City gate gas prices reflected a similar gap between the PG&E and SoCal hubs as generators in the north needed to run to backfill the Diablo Canyon Unit 2 nuke that went offline for maintenance and the swell of solar that the southern part of the state enjoys. PG&E’s city gate price posted $3.45 for the weekend package while SoCal’s gate cleared at $2.51 MMBtu reflecting mainly a need to park thermal units at the pMin level for most of the day and ramp them in the evening to ride through the challenging solar fadeaway hours. Solar curtailments were also a heavy part of the weekend grid reports as the midday hours were swamped with solar unmatched by load and battery demands; curtailed volumes peaked on Sat which averaged about 1500 MWs while also being seen in several hours of prices printing below the $0 waterline during the midday hours in SP15 over the weekend.
  • Once hailed as a marvel of renewable energy innovation, the Ivanpah Solar Power Facility in the Mojave Desert will be shuttered in 2026, marking the end of an ambitious but troubled chapter in the state’s clean energy journey. Despite its striking appearance and its mirrored towers shining in the desert—the $2.2 Billion project will retire after years of underperformance and mounting criticism over its high emissions (it also burns natural gas) and impact on wildlife flying through its concentrated solar fields. Construction on Ivanpah began in 2010 and was completed in 2014, with the facility expected to provide a significant leap forward in solar energy generation. The facility struggled to efficiently produce solar power as it was designed and was hampered by technical difficulties and high maintenance costs. Also set to retire in 2026, three once-through cooling (OTC) facilities in SoCal that have seen their expiration dates moved several times. Units 3, 4, & 5 at the Alamitos Generating Station in Long Beach, Unit 2 at Huntington Beach Generating Station and Units 1 & 2 at the Ormond Beach Generating Station in Oxnard are scheduled to shut down by December 31, 2026. Unless the State Water Resources Control Board extends their compliance deadlines. Again.

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