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NOTE: We will not be sending the Energy Market Update the week of July 6. We hope you have a safe and happy holiday weekend.

Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of June 29, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt-month natural gas settled at $3.18/MMbtu, down $.10 on Monday, June 29.
  • Prompt-month natural gas settled at $3.25/MMbtu, on Monday, June 22.
  • Prompt month crude oil (WTI) settled at $70.92/bbl., up $1.69 on Monday, June 29.
  • Prompt month crude oil (WTI) settled at $74.82/bbl., on Monday, June 22.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral

  • Very hot and humid in the East with heat-indices above 100 from Boston to Miami through the holiday weekend, but then breaking to seasonal temperatures.
  • The natural gas market is in a range-bound condition; bound on the top by strong production and ample storage, and bound on the bottom by summer power-generation demand and rising LNG exports.
  • YTD Production of natural gas year-to-date averaged 108.9 Bcf, up 4 Bcf per day from last year.
  • YTD Power generation averaged 33.5 Bcf per day, up 1.0 Bcf per day from the same period last year.
  • YTD Industrial consumption averaged 23.4 Bcf per day, down 0.5 Bcf per day from the same period last year.
  • YTD Residential/commercial consumption averaged 26 Bcf per day, down 2 Bcf per day year-over-year.
  • YTD LNG exports averaged 19.4 Bcf per day versus 15.6 Bcf per day over the same period last year.

Crude Oil - Neutral/Bullish

  • On June 24, AXS Marine recorded 62 commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz, the highest single day count since the war began started, but only equivalent to 53% of the traffic on the same day last year.
  • Mixed messages abound in the ongoing discussion with Iran regarding an agreement to end the war.  The Trump Administration said that talks would take place in Doha today, but an Iranian spokesman has denied this.
  • Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar continue loading oil and LNG onto vessels at their Persian Gulf ports despite this weekend's flare-up in the region while Iran has renewed loadings from Karg Island, its key oil facility.
  • The U.S. has waived the sanctions on Iranian oil sales, including in U.S. dollars, until August 21.
  • Prompt-month crude oil (WTI) settled at $70.92/bbl., up $1.69 on Monday, June 29. 
  • Uncertainty abounds and the situation is still volatile.

Economy - Neutral

  • Average U.S. gasoline prices are now below $4/gallon for the first time in months.
  • The consumer confidence index rose to 91.2 in June from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the number of job openings ticked higher in May to 7.6 million, setting a fresh two year high.
  • Wholesale inflation hit 4.1% in May, the highest pace in three years.

Weather - Bullish

  • The East is hot and humid with heat indices above 100 degrees this week from Boston to Miami.  
  • The Midwest is very hot and humid as well.
  • The heat wave will extend through the holiday weekend and then break to seasonal levels early next week.

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending June 19 are 2,835 Bcf; an injection of 76 Bcf was reported for the week ending June 19. Stocks were 49 Bcf lower than this time last year and 152 Bcf above the five-year-average.
Values reflect week ending June 26, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending June 26, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were slightly higher over the past week as significant heat leading up to the July 4th holiday is providing some price support to the front part of the curve for the balance of 2026 and for 2027.  Adequate supplies through natural gas production and storage are tempering prices somewhat, but the uptick in cooling demand is having an impact.  The heat ridge will mature over the eastern United States over the next few days, bringing 100°+ heat to the East Coast and widespread 90s across much of the eastern half of the nation.  With increased humidity, heat indices will reach the 110s in some locations. The eastern ridge will begin to break down over the holiday weekend before reestablishing over the interior West later next week. The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were 2% higher over the past week and 5% higher over the past month, with the 2028-2030 terms each 1% higher week-over-week.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price for June thus far in West Hub is $56.56/MWh which is 24% higher than May’s final settlement price average.
  • Stakeholders Share Updated Proposals Ahead of RBP/C&M Stage 4 Meeting - Ahead of the final stakeholder meeting on Reliability Backstop Procurement (RBP)/Connect and Manage (C&M) that will occur on 6/30, stakeholders submitted updated final proposals including 13 proposals on RBP and 11 on C&M.  PJMs updated RBP proposal contemplates a two-track structure: a bilateral facilitation phase in parallel with central procurement for any remaining shortfall. The procurement target is based on the 2028/29 Base Residual Auction (BRA) reliability shortfall, reduced by bilateral contracts between new large loads and qualifying new supply, approved IRP supply, or large-load demand-side participation. PJM proposes a fixed price cap of $555/MW-day UCAP. RBP costs would flow to zones and then to Load Serving Entities (LSEs) based on Large Load Contribution. With respect to BRA interaction, PJM proposes that RBP resources must offer into the capacity market as $0 price takers, while RBP load remains in the capacity market forecasts.

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were slightly higher over the past week as significant heat leading up to the July 4th holiday is providing some price support to the front part of the curve for the balance of 2026 and for 2027.  Adequate supplies through natural gas production and storage are tempering prices somewhat, but the uptick in cooling demand is having an impact.  The heat ridge will mature over the eastern United States over the next few days, bringing 100°+ heat to the East Coast and widespread 90s across much of the eastern half of the nation.  With increased humidity, heat indices will reach the 110s in some locations. The eastern ridge will begin to break down over the holiday weekend before reestablishing over the interior West later next week. The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were 1% higher over the past week and 5% higher over the past month, with the 2028-2030 terms unchanged week-over-week.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price for June thus far in COMED is $35.20/MWh which is 23% higher than May’s final settlement price average., while in AdHub that price is $45.23/MWh or 3% higher than the previous month.  In Michigan, the average price thus far for June is $43.59/MWh or 28% higher than the May average, while in Ameren the current month-to-date average is $37.08/MWh or 24% higher than last month. 
  • FERC Accepts PJM Expedited Interconnection Proposal - On 6/9, FERC accepted PJM’s two-year-limited proposal to grant fast-track interconnection processing for up to ten large projects (greater than 250 MW) per year that can achieve commercial operation within three years.  FERC found that the Expedited Interconnection Track (EIT) appropriately addresses PJM’s near-term resource adequacy shortfall by moving large viable projects through a separate, accelerated interconnection process without harming entities with existing interconnection requests. 

Northeast Energy Summary

 

  • On June 24, the Massachusetts Senate Ways & Means Committee advanced the omnibus energy bill that was passed by the House in February.  The House version contained industry-supported consumer protections, including increased fees for licensing and bonding requirements, consent for automatic renewals, and prohibits low-income customers from enrolling with competitive suppliers.  The Senate version amends the bill to include a 12-month trailing average price cap for all customers (rather than just low income), a ban on automatic renewals, and a ban on all commissions for enrollments.  Both versions of the bill include a provision that allows municipalities to prohibit their residents from enrolling or renewing with competitive suppliers, severely harming the residential electricity market in the state. Both the House and Senate version of the bill also include provisions that increase the authority of the Department of Energy Resources (DOER) to procure clean energy and retire the clean attributes.  This new authority also allows DOER, at its discretion, to reduce the obligations of suppliers proportional to the amount of attributes they were able to retire.  The state believes this will lower costs by moving the procurements from the electric distribution companies (EDCs) to the state, thereby removing the additional costs of renumeration for the EDCs.  However, this state-based approach also creates uncertainty in supplier obligations, interfering with the renewable energy credit market and suppliers’ contracts with renewable resources. The Senate bill also includes a directive to the Department of Public Utilities to investigate “price markups” in basic service procurements, authorize DOER to develop a statewide energy storage incentive program, delay Renewable Portfolio Standard obligation increases for 2027-2029, and phase out a gas infrastructure maintenance program.  The Senate removed portions of the bill that cut funding to energy efficiency and electrification programs and removed the repeal of the ballot initiative requirement for new nuclear. The Senate will debate and vote on the bill on July 1.
  • New England energy forward prices moved up slightly on the week (~1%) after a material drop on the US/Iran 60-day agreement was reached 2 weeks ago. This past week's slight gains was driven by domestic temperature outlooks calling broad heat for eastern 2/3rds of the US. Additionally, carbon allowance pricing (RGGI) continues to be volatile and will continue to impact the region's forward prices. Geopolitical risks in Iran remain precarious and any return to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will likely directly impact the regions energy market. 
  • New York forward power prices moved higher this week in anticipation that widespread heat later this week will materially support power demand.  The heat ridge will bring 100°+ heat to parts of the East Coast. With increased humidity, heat indices will reach the 110s in some locations before eventually breaking down over the holiday weekend. Bal ’26 was up 6% across zones, while Cal ’27-30 remained mostly flat week-over-week.  Forward price also moved higher month-over-month, particularly in the outer years where Cal’29 and Cal’30 jumped ~2-4% higher depending on zone.  Index prices, which have been mostly subdued in June could see spikes and volatility over the next few days. Additionally, widespread heat across the state could give New York its first run at establishing a preliminary ICAP peak for the summer.  Temperatures are expected to surpass 100 degrees in parts of the state on Thursday and Friday.  NYISO's 7-day load forecast shows peak load reaching 30,945 MW Thursday at 7pm.  Load forecasts may evolve throughout the week – you can access the most current information through the: NYISO Real-Time Dashboard and NYISO Capacity Report. A few additional notes:
    • NYISO forecast 2026 peak load of 31,578 MW in its 2026 Summer Capacity Assessment
    • NYISO forecast 2025 peak load of 31,471 MW in its 2025 Summer Capacity Assessment
      • ICAP peak load last summer was 30,645 MW on 7/29/2025 HE 19 (NYISO tariff states peaks must occur on a non-holiday weekday in July or August)
      • System peak load last summer was 31,875 MW on 6/24/2025 HE 19 (occurred in June so was not used to establish the statewide ICAP peak)
      • NYISO all-time peak load was 33,956 MW on 7/19/2013 HE 17

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • An unseasonably cool weather pattern continues across the West this week, bringing mild 70ish degree temperatures and storminess further north, while the Desert Southwest cities see temperatures sit in the 90s and low-100s. The models are suggesting a slow rewarming trend, shifting intense heat toward the upcoming holiday weekend, though the Pacific Northwest may wait till late in the 11-15 day window before participating in the warmup. The way it looks now is heat enters the equation next week as above normal temperatures will span from the Desert Southwest through the interior West and Rockies, bringing upper 90s and low 100s internally, and low 110s to Phoenix. Hottest anomalies will center over the interior West, bringing some above-normal temperatures to inland California and the Pacific Northwest, though these conditions are not expected to be extreme at this time. Yet again, California’s coastal population centers will continue to sit this out as a strong onshore flow keeps a lid on temperatures. The state’s good fortune continues.
  • This prolonged stretch of moderate weather has resulted in depressed regional power burn, compounding ongoing oversupply challenges within the natural gas market. With storage inventories remaining high, natural gas dispatchers are struggling to find a home for excess molecules, a structural issue that intensifies over weekends when commercial demand drops. Supply length is further exacerbated by strong regional renewables; solar output remains plentiful across California and the Desert Southwest, while wind generation is healthy throughout. Additionally, robust hydro generation in the Pacific Northwest has eliminated that region's need for imported megawatts. Although residual heat from last week was sufficient to prevent PG&E from declaring high operational flow orders (OFOs), SoCalGas is actively managing a heavy solar influx by utilizing curtailments to keep its system balanced. With modest temperatures forecast across California for the remainder of the week, gas operators face ongoing struggles to handle molecules coming in over the pipes.
  • The broader Western Interconnection power grid is similarly managing extreme structural length, driven by light power demand and a heavy renewable presence across every regional balancing area. This supply imbalance was fully apparent on Sunday, when every generation hub within the CAISO footprint saw its day-ahead heavy-load block clear with prices that fell below the $0 MWh waterline. This collapse was driven by the real-time market, where weekend price action featured negative pricing across consecutive hours. These conditions triggered extensive system-level curtailments, forcing grid operators to shut down wind and solar resources due to an overall excess of generation. While subsequent day-ahead results managed to pull back into positive territory, this recovery was driven solely by higher pricing during the evening ramp block as wind generation died HE5. Looking ahead, the real-time market is expected to struggle to reach positive territory within SP15 this week. The ongoing news about the raging wildfires in Utah and Alberta is causing the wildfire blip on the radar screen to start gaining in size and intensity. Both regions are dealing with the challenge of containing the blazes as they try to protect property and energy interests like transmission corridors in the path. All of which is a stark reminder, the worst of the season is in front of us.

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