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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of February 2, 2026

By The Numbers:

  • Prompt month (March 2026) natural gas settled at $3.24/MMbtu, down $1.117 on Monday, February 2.
  • Prompt month crude oil settled at $62.14/bbl, down $3.07 on Monday, February 2.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral

  • Warmer weather trends sent natural gas futures plunging Monday as traders took profits and reassessed seasonal storage expectations. 
  • The March Nymex contract settled at $3.24/MMBtu, tumbling $1.117/MMBtu.  The sharp drop wiped out last week’s 74.5-cent rally, which had been fueled by model hints of a potential return to widespread February cold.
  • Hub spot prices on Monday settled $2.82/MMBtu lower, to close at $4.48/MMBtu.  Cash-prompt stood at $1.24/MMBtu.
  • Production estimates continue to show a decline in freeze-offs as temperatures improve.  Daily freeze-offs could fall to less than 2 Bcf/d starting Tuesday, with most of the effects seen in Appalachia. 
  • Henry Hub NYMEX Cal 27-31 strips closed at $3.75/MMBtu (-0.17), $3.64/MMBtu (-0.04), $3.59/MMBtu (-0.03), $3.59/MMBtu (-0.01), $3.60/MMBtu (+0.02), respectively.

Crude Oil - Neutral

  • Oil prices fell more than $3 per barrel on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was "seriously talking" with Washington, signaling a de-escalation of tensions with the OPEC member, while a stronger dollar and milder weather forecasts also pressured prices.  WTI Mar ’26 closed at $62.14/Bbl (-3.07), while Brent Apr ’26 settled at $66.30/Bbl (-3.02), from prior day close.
  • Crude oil prompt month futures are up this morning after falling 4% in the previous session, as market participants considered the global supply outlook and the possibility of de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran tension.  At the time of writing Tuesday morning, WTI Mar ’26 was trading at $62.55/Bbl (+0.41), and Brent Apr ’26 was trading at $65.60/Bbl (+0.30).
  • WTI Cal 27-31 strips closed at $59.26/Bbl (-2.28), $60.09/Bbl (-1.79), $61.11/Bbl (-1.38), $61.75/Bbl (-1.04), $61.93/Bbl (-0.76), respectively.  Brent Cal 27-31 strips closed at $63.13/Bbl (-2.43), $64.01/Bbl (-1.95), $68.35/Bbl (-0.14), $68.58/Bbl (0.00), $68.40/Bbl (0.00), respectively.

Economy - Neutral

  • The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing PMI came in at 52.6% for January, compared with the consensus 48.5% and 47.9% in December, marking the first month of expansion in a year.
  • The Trump administration is predicting over 5% GDP growth for 1Q26 and 6% for the year, citing Fed rate cuts and tax refunds.  
  • Economists are forecasting a more meager 2.0-2.5% amid tariff and policy uncertainties.
  • January Services ISM is due out this week on Wednesday.
  • Friday's jobs report is expected to be delayed due to partial government shutdown.  

Weather - Bullish

  • There will be one more shot of strong cold air moving across the Midwest and East this weekend, but it will be a brief 2-3 day event.  After that, the winter pattern begins to break down as the indices continue to retreat from their colder signals. This led to another demand loss in the overnight models, with storm-induced cooling in the West that sends a milder ridge pattern over the Midwest and toward the East.
  • 16-30 Day Outlooks: Both the American and European weather models show cold air retreating to Canada, but not going completely out of the picture.  This would allow for occasional cold shots across the Northeast, but would be milder across a broader section of the nation into the first half of March before colder risks show up again.

 

 
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Values reflect week ending Jan. 30, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending Jan. 30, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were higher on the week, particularly in the near term, as January cold started to provide significant uplift to those terms.  March Nymex natural gas futures were up 20% on the week on tight supply and stubborn cold.  Shrinking inventories, lingering production freeze-offs and hints of a possible mid-February cold shot fueled impressive gains for natural gas futures on Friday.  Conversely, Monday natural gas futures plummeted by more than 25% as the market focused on milder temperature forecasts and production recovering from freeze-offs.  Forward power prices for the 2026-2030 terms, last week, were 5% higher with a 15% increase for the balance of 2026 and a 3% increase on the back end of the price curve for 2027-2030.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in West Hub for February is currently $227.17/MWh.  Final settlement prices for January are still pending.
  • PJM Uses Conservative Operations for Extreme and Extended Cold Weather- PJM invoked Conservative Operations for Winter Storm Fern this past week and extended it through the weekend.  Beginning on 1/19, PJM issued a Cold Weather Advisory in anticipation of winter weather and extreme conditions forecasted for the region.  Generation outage maintenance recall was in place, effective 1/24, to increase the amount of generation available to meet customer demand.  PJM also invoked Conservative Operations 1/24 through 2/1 for advanced unit commitments.  On 1/29, PJM announced that Conservative Operations and Cold Weather alerts are extended through 2/2, accompanying the extreme cold.  PJM has also extended a Conservative Operations declaration through 2/2 for advance unit commitments, fuel and emissions limitations.  On 1/25, the US Department of Energy (DOE) granted PJM’s request pursuant to Section 202(C) for authority to dispatch all electric generating units located within the PJM region to operate up to their maximum generation output levels, notwithstanding air quality or other permit limitations or fuel shortages while the emergency lasts.  FERC granted a PJM request on 1/30 to extend the DOE Order through 11:59pm EST on 2/2.  Peak electricity demand on 1/27 and 1/28 fell short of PJM’s all-time winter hourly peak of 143,700 MW set in January 2025.  The hourly peak on 1/27 was approximately 136,800 MW and well under PJM’s forecast of over 147,000 MW.  PJM will provide a winter storm update at the Operating Committee meeting on 2/5.

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were higher on the week, particularly in the near term, as January cold started to provide significant uplift to those terms.  March Nymex natural gas futures were up 20% on the week on tight supply and stubborn cold.  Shrinking inventories, lingering production freeze-offs and hints of a possible mid-February cold shot fueled impressive gains for natural gas futures on Friday.  Conversely, Monday natural gas futures plummeted by more than 25% as the market focused on milder temperature forecasts and production recovering from freeze-offs.  Forward power prices for the 2026-2030 terms, last week, were 2% higher with a 5% increase for the balance of 2026 and only a slight 1% increase on the back end of the price curve for 2027-2030.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average in COMED for February is currently $73.11/MWh, while in AdHub it is $140.69/MWh for the month.  In Michigan, thus far, the day ahead index average for this month is $115.86/MWh, while in Ameren the index price is averaging $91.16/MWh.  Final settlement prices for January are still pending.
  • PJM Uses Conservative Operations for Extreme and Extended Cold Weather- PJM invoked Conservative Operations for Winter Storm Fern this past week and extended it through the weekend.  Beginning on 1/19, PJM issued a Cold Weather Advisory in anticipation of winter weather and extreme conditions forecasted for the region.  Generation outage maintenance recall was in place, effective 1/24, to increase the amount of generation available to meet customer demand.  PJM also invoked Conservative Operations 1/24 through 2/1 for advanced unit commitments.  On 1/29, PJM announced that Conservative Operations and Cold Weather alerts are extended through 2/2, accompanying the extreme cold.  PJM has also extended a Conservative Operations declaration through 2/2 for advance unit commitments, fuel and emissions limitations.  On 1/25, the US Department of Energy (DOE) granted PJM’s request pursuant to Section 202(C) for authority to dispatch all electric generating units located within the PJM region to operate up to their maximum generation output levels, notwithstanding air quality or other permit limitations or fuel shortages while the emergency lasts.  FERC granted a PJM request on 1/30 to extend the DOE Order through 11:59pm EST on 2/2.  Peak electricity demand on 1/27 and 1/28 fell short of PJM’s all-time winter hourly peak of 143,700 MW set in January 2025.  The hourly peak on 1/27 was approximately 136,800 MW and well under PJM’s forecast of over 147,000 MW.  PJM will provide a winter storm update at the Operating Committee meeting on 2/5.

Northeast Energy Summary

  • Winter Storm Fern rolled into New England on January 24, increasing peak load from ~18 GW on January 23 to 19.8 GW on the 24th, and reached 20.8 GW on the 25th (~600MW over the forecast).  Peak loads have since leveled out around 19.7 GW.  The record winter peak demand in New England is 22.8 GW back in January 2004.  During the current storm, energy imports from Canada were unexpectedly and dramatically reduced.  Starting on 24th and into the 26th, Phase II flipped from importing ~550 MW to exporting ~660 MW, and the New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC) which had been importing 1.1 GW around-the-clock up until Friday was reduced to zero, reportedly due to increased power demand in Quebec.  Imports from both Phase II and NECEC have resumed but intermittently.
  • On the supply side, starting on January 25, ~25-30% of system energy was from oil resources (normally nil), while generation outages approached 4.3 GW going into 1/26, but have since leveled out at ~3.2 GW.  Late on 1/24 the ISO initiated an FPA 202(c) waiver request, which was granted and extends through 1/31.  Over 40 units were included in the waiver.  Near record setting prices were observed during this time.  On-Peak average Day-Ahead Locational Marginal Prices (DA LMPs) ranged from $268/MWh on 1/24, to $660/MWh on 1/27, with Forecasted Energy Requirement (FER) Payments ranging from $351/MWh to $431/MWh respectively.  
  • NYISO saw a similar impacts from Winter Storm Fern.  Generators in the state had to rely on oil as gas was scarce, and snow on solar equipment impacted solar generation. The Special Case Resource program was activated multiple times from January 25-January 30 and sustained below-normal temperatures through the last week in January pushed peak load to 24,177 MW on 1/30/26.  NYCA all-time winter electric peak load was 25,738 MW on 1/7/2014, the year of the ‘Polar Vortex.’  Index prices soared across the NYCA, pulling up monthly day-ahead January average index prices significantly, even surpassing January all-time high day-ahead index prices established in 2014. Zone A DA index for January was $159.02/MWh (174% above the 5-yr average); zone F DA index for January was $188.17/MWh, zone G DA index for January was $187.76/MWh, and zone J DA index for January was $189.10/MWh (124% above the 5-yr average).

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • Summer has settled in across SoCal and the deserts with daytime highs in the low to mid-80s. Mild weather across the entire Western region is locked in for the balance of the week as the weather maps are covered in oranges and reds indicating temperatures are running way over what would be expected for wintertime. This forecast is not doing the ski industry out West any favors. Current models suggest that a cooling trough will dig into the West next week, sending in seasonable to below normal temperatures in spots along with an increase in storminess. While some storminess looks only occasional in California, the Pacific Northwest will likely see several rounds of heavy precipitation, including notable snowfall across the region and up into British Columbia. This stormy pattern is shown to persist into the back half of the month along with a near to below normal lean for much of the Western region. Bottom line, the warmer pattern will come to an end next week as a cooler and stormier pattern begins to take shape, especially into NorCal and the PNW, giving the snow industry some hope that it will recover in the back half of winter. California’s ski resorts are working on a much tighter timeline. There’s about six weeks left on the calendar where there’s a decent chance material snowpack can be added, after which we’ll have a pretty clear picture on how the current hydro season will shape up. As it sits now, the current forecast suggests the likelihood of a massive late winter water release to make room for a later spring snowmelt is off the table.
  • CAISO dispatchers are facing springtime-low load levels as demand has evaporated. From a grid balancing perspective, the shift in spot natural gas prices at SoCal Border and City gate have put the focus on finding a home for molecules in the LA Basin, instead of the price signal that was evident last week which was to burn gas out of PG&E’s system and move the electrons down the lines into SP15. A simple rule of thumb is that a price differential above $2 MMBtu is usually enough to yield this change in operational behavior (where power burns are the focal point). The adjustment has shifted the day ahead price settles from the $40s last week to the $20s this week for peak hours. The congestion component of the model has also reverted to normal springtime behavior where SP15’s prices clear $3 – 5 per MWh below NP15. This spread could widen further as the week progresses as solar generation conditions will be near ideal. Curtailments will also start to ramp up in earnest as low demand crashes into a solar profile that is widening out by a couple hours as the days get longer.
  • The clouds gathering on the horizon that will cause conditions on the grid to shift oddly start with the clear skies delivering the solar irradiance translates to a flood of electrons on the grid during the midday hours. In front of the meter and behind the meter solar eat away at the need for thermal generation midday, and the 15k plus megawatts of batteries on the CAISO grid eat away at the need for thermal generation during the evening ramp hours. Solid storage in the reservoirs (reservoirs = good, snowpack = bad) and minimal waterflow targets will allow dispatchers to further minimize thermal gen needs. Barring any dramatic weather driven shifts in demand, the gas grid will soon be very long natural gas. This portends a period in the not distant future where space will need to be created in the storage caverns for injection season by dumping gas. This could coincide with a period of maintenance work on the Grand Coulee dam slated for mid-March that will see hydro generation increase and push megawatt-hours south along the interties.

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