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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of April 27, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt month natural gas settled at $2.55/MMbtu, up $.03 on Monday, April 27.
  • Prompt month crude oil (WTI) traded at $96.37/bbl., up $1.97 on Monday, April 27.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral/Bearish

  • A cooler pattern in the eastern half of the U.S. keeps a lid on gas-fired generation.
  • A series of strong storage injections will present in the next few weeks keeping a lid on gas pricing action.
  • Natural gas production is at record levels but has tapered a bit over the past ten days.  YTD, gas production averaged 108.7 Bcf per day, up 4.3 Bcf per day over the same period last year.
  • The natural gas supply/demand balance year-over-year favors the supply side by 2.8 Bcf per day.
  • Global LNG prices remain elevated, however, U.S. LNG export terminals are delivering at near maximum capacity and cannot divert additional volumes to the higher-value LNG market.

Crude Oil - Bullish

  • Crude (prompt-month WTI) settled at $96.37/bbl., up $1.97 on Monday, April 27.
  • Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill.
  • The U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping remains.
  • Iranian oil flows are reportedly threatened as storage facilities are near full. If Iran has to shut down production at the wellhead, this would likely damage the wells' future production capability.  
  • Iranian oil revenues are near zero, a major problem for the regime.
  • There have been reports of U.S. naval assets conducting mine sweeping operations, but few details.
  • Bullish for longer and until further notice.

Economy - Neutral

  • The Middle East conflict is expected to weaken growth as commodity prices surge, The World Bank says.
  • April consumer sentiment improved in April according to the Conference Board Survey.
  • U.S. home price growth slowed in February with the Case Schiller national home price index rising 0.7% compared with a 0.8% increase in January.
  • U.S. pending home sales rose in March by 1.5%, The Wall Street Journal reports.
  • U.S. jobless claims rose last week but layoffs remain at stable levels.
  • Inflation pressure remains as higher fuel costs continue.

Weather - Neutral

  • Cool temperatures are in the forecast in the 6-10 day period.
  • Cool northern air will mix with warmer air from the south creating storminess.
  • Much of the country remains in drought conditions.

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending April 17 are 2,063 Bcf; an injection of 103 Bcf was reported for the week ending April 17. 
Values reflect week ending Apr. 24, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending Apr. 24, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were higher on the week, despite the seasonal softness in natural gas prices. May NYMEX natural gas extended losses Friday, deepening a storage-driven sell-off as mild weather and swelling supplies pressured the contract in its final days as the prompt month, despite record high LNG exports.   We saw cooler changes to the weather forecast over the weekend model runs. Severe weather season is peaking across the central United States over the next few days, as warm air moving up from the South clashes with Canada’s number one export. A strong cold front will move across the eastern half of the nation late this week, bringing another round of chilly air over the weekend. The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were 2% higher, on average, over the past week with more support for the near terms than the outer terms.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price average for April, in West Hub, is $51.92/MWh or 9% higher than last month’s final settlement price average.
  • Governor Shapiro Files Motion to Keep Two Coal-Fired Power Plants Open - The Shapiro Administration has requested approval from the Indiana County Court of Common Pleas of a consent decree with Keystone-Conemaugh Projects, LLC (Key-Con), operator of the Keystone and Conemaugh Generating Stations in Indiana and Armstrong Counties, to allow continued operation of both power plants with required upgrades to meet federal wastewater discharge standards.  In 2021, the owner of the two plants announced it would close the plants by 2028, rather than comply with new federal limits implemented in 2020.  Last year, the company announced that it would keep the plants open, citing growing demand from data centers.  The Pennsylvania State Department of Environmental Protection, which implements the federal water pollution guidelines, filed legal papers on 4/20 to enter into a consent decree with the company to keep the plants open through 2032.  The plants would be required to develop a plan to meet the wastewater standards or face a fine of up to $1,500 per day.

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were higher during the week, despite the seasonal softness in natural gas prices. May NYMEX natural gas extended losses Friday, deepening a storage-driven sell-off as mild weather and swelling supplies pressured the contract in its final days as the prompt month, despite record high LNG exports.  We saw cooler changes to the weather forecast over the weekend model runs.   Severe weather season is peaking across the central United States over the next few days, as warm air moving up from the South clashes with Canada’s number one export.  A strong cold front will move across the eastern half of the nation late this week, bringing another round of chilly air over the weekend.  The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were 2% higher, on average, over the past week with more support for the near terms than the outer terms.  The month-to-date, day-ahead settlement price in COMED is currently averaging $23.73/MWh or -19% lower than March’s final settlement price, while in AdHub that average price for April thus far is $45.35/MWh or 4% higher than last month’s average.  In Michigan, the month-to-date average price currently is $40.78/MWh or 3% higher than the March average, while Ameren’s current settlement price average for April is $29.60/MWh or -5% lower than March’s final index average.
  • PJM Publishes 2025 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan: On 04/17, PJM published its 2025 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan (RTEP) report.  As previously reported when the PJM Board approved the 2025 RTEP upgrades in February 2026, the plan includes 122 new baseline projects for the 2025 RTEP at an estimated cost of $11.8 billion. The Board also approved the inclusion of 445 new network transmission projects at an estimated cost of $959.1 million. Since the RTEP process was implemented in 1997, the PJM Board has approved transmission system enhancements totaling approximately $70.8 billion. The selected projects address fundamental grid reliability in the face of changing regional power flows along with delivery of generation seeking to interconnect to the PJM system.

Northeast Energy Summary

  • On April 22, Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont announced that the Public Utilities Regulatory Authority issued interim decisions for the state’s two electric distribution companies (EDC) that would lower electric rates by around 14% or between $30 and $34 per month depending on the EDC.  The Governor credited the reductions in rates to a decrease in the public benefits charge, a fee on electric rates that consists of social and energy policy programs.  One of these programs was the contract for differences that guarantees a price for power produced from Millstone and Seabrook nuclear stations. The Governor is praising these contracts for saving ratepayers $250 million in 2025 and $200 million so far in 2026 due to increased gas pricings from Winter Storm Fern and the war in Iran.  The contracts, along with legislation from last year that changed other programs, will mean that the public benefits charge will be a net refund to customers starting on May 1 and will last through September.
  • On April 24, Maine Governor Janet Mills vetoed LD 307 which would have imposed a moratorium on data centers 20 MW or greater until 11/1/27 to give time for a new council to coordinate state planning considerations and evaluate policy tools to address data center opportunities and related benefits and risks to the state. The veto prevents Maine from being the first state in the country to enact a ban on data centers.  Governor Mills stated that she believes a moratorium on data centers is appropriate because their impacts on the environment and electricity rates, but that she was vetoing the bill because it did not contain a carve out for a proposed project in Jay, a community in Maine that wants the data center to help boost their economy. The legislature will vote on April 29 on whether to override the Governor’s veto; the bill was originally passed along party lines without a two-thirds majority.
  • In early April, New York’s Office of Renewable Energy Siting and Electric Transmission (ORES) approved siting permits for two major renewable energy projects: the 99 MW Agricola Wind facility in Cayuga County, proposed by Liberty Renewables; and the 300 MW Flat Creek Solar facility in Montgomery County, developed by Cordelio Power.  Both projects began their siting processes in the second half of 2023 and have secured Tier 1 contracts with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority under the RESRFP24-1 solicitation.  The recent approvals align with New York’s ambitious clean energy targets, building on the Senate’s recent passage of the Accelerate Solar for Affordable Power Act, which targets 20 GW of distributed energy capacity by 2035.  New York reached its previous target of 6 GW by 2025, in 2024 and increased it to reach 10 GW of installed distributed solar by 2030.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • As the West moves toward the final inning of April, the atmospheric setup across California and the broader region is reflecting a classic late-spring transition. Trends underway indicate a brief cooling spell for the Golden State and Desert Southwest to start the week, before seasonable highs in the 70s become the norm, neither of which will do anything for demand levels. A ridge building over Western Canada looks like it will push temperatures into the 70s and low 80s across the Pacific Northwest allowing their relative demand to outpace California, though this warmth is expected to moderate by the second week of May. From a renewable generation standpoint, California’s solar profile remains robust under mostly clear SoCal skies, while wind production across the Pacific Northwest is slated for a brief spike before retreating to lower levels through the weekend.
  • In the natural gas market, the narrative remains dominated by a persistent glut of supply and significant demand attrition compared to the previous year. PG&E and SoCalGas have seen April demand drop by 10% and 13% respectively YoY, largely due to the aggressive expansion of renewable resources and a resurgent hydro landscape in the Pacific Northwest. This influx of hypo-allergenic, organic, sugarless carbon-free energy continues to displace the ultra-processed high-fat thermal generators, particularly during light-load periods. Storage fundamentals reinforce the bearish sentiment; PG&E inventories are already approaching levels typically not seen until mid-July, and they, along with SoCalGas, have been hitting the High Operational Flow Order (OFO) button lately. Buyers should remain alert as their operators will likely have to keep hitting that button as we move through the spring and there is little room for excess molecules in the system.
  • The CAISO electricity market is at the tail end of this supply-demand imbalance through increasingly volatile and often negative pricing at both trading hubs that includes the number 15. Day ahead settlement prices for peak flow today at SP15 barely cracked the $0 waterline, clearing at $0.43 MWh. They closed well into negative territory the last couple days and the spread between NP and SP was pronounced as SoCal saw impressive solar generation numbers. While peak demand is expected to rise slightly heading into May, providing some stabilization to the grid, the sheer volume of renewable megawatts and the slow ramp in volumes coming in on the SunZia line continue to eat the lunch of thermal generators.

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