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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of June 8, 2026

By the Numbers:
 
  • Prompt month natural gas settled at $3.15/MMbtu, down $.08 on Monday, June 8.
  • Prompt month natural gas settled at $3.18/MMbtu on Monday, June 1.
  • Prompt month crude oil (WTI) settled at $94.60/bbl., up $4.00 on Monday, June 8.
  • Prompt month crude oil (WTI) settled at $92.16/bbl., on Monday, June 1.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral

  • Hot and humid in the East and Midwest through much of this week is on tap. Lots of rain and storminess keeps temperatures somewhat in check, but lower 90s through the weekend will present in New York City, and points east and the humidity will be high. A cool-off ensues next week with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.
  • YTD Production of natural gas year-to-date averaged 108.7 Bcf, up 4 Bcf per day from last year.
  • YTD Power generation averaged 32.5 Bcf per day, up 1.2 Bcf per day from the same period last year.
  • YTD Industrial consumption averaged 23.6 Bcf per day, down 0.6 Bcf per day from the same period last year.
  • YTD Residential/commercial consumption averaged 28.2 Bcf per day, down 2.2 Bcf per day year-over-year.
  • YTD LNG exports averaged 19.4 Bcf per day versus 15.7 Bcf per day over the same period last year.
  • YTD demand for gas is up 2.5 Bcf per day while supply is up 4 bcf per day.
  • The market is well supplied, but the supply/demand balance has tightened over the past six weeks as residential/commercial demand is bottoming, while power-generation load is rising.

Crude Oil - Bullish

  • Prompt month crude oil (WTI) settled at $94.60/bbl., up $4.00 on Monday, June 8.
  • Prompt month crude oil (WTI) tumbled this morning (June 9), falling $3.57/bbl., to $87.83/bbl.
  • Israel and Iran traded fire on Sunday and oil prices jumped on Monday.  On Monday evening, it was reported that Israel and Iran would cease fire as President Trump said a deal to end hostilities is near.
  • Reuters reported last week that several oil-product tankers and LNG carriers transited the Strait of Hormuz, but traffic is still largely shut in.
  • Before the war, tanker traffic was 125-140 vessels per day.

Economy - Neutral

  • Hiring beat expectations with 172,000 new jobs reported for May.  April and March jobs were revised upward as well.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3 percent.
  • May home sales notched their biggest rise this year with sales up 3.2%.
  • Investors boost bets for Fed-rate rise after a strong U.S. jobs report.
  • Treasury yields are largely unchanged week-over-week, at 4.54% for the ten-year note.
  • Oil prices are highly volatile as is the situation in the Middle East and higher oil prices continue to be a factor in persistent inflation.
  • Core inflation hit 3.3% in April on an annualized basis.

Weather - Neutral

  • Heat and high humidity through the Midwest and East prevail through the week.
  • A cool-air front moves into the eastern half of the country next week.
  • Lots of rain and storminess prevails keeping temperatures in check.

 

 

Weekly Natural Gas Report

  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending May 29 are 2,578 Bcf; an injection of 95 Bcf was reported for the week ending May 29. Stocks were 3 Bcf higher than this time last year and 138 Bcf above the five-year-average.
Values reflect week ending June 5, 2026
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Prices reflect week ending June 5, 2026

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices were unchanged over the past week amid somewhat benign cooling demand, slightly lower natural gas production as well as lower LNG exports due to some lingering maintenance on the plants.  Gas storage inventories are ample at this point of injection season, being 5% above the 5-year average.  A cooling trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift toward the mid-continent this week, while a building ridge develops over the eastern United States. This pattern will bring hot and humid conditions to the eastern half of the nation, though it will also come with an increased risk of thunderstorms.  The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were unchanged over the past week and were 3-4% lower over the past month.  The final day-ahead settlement price for May in West Hub is $45.67/MWh which is -13% lower than April’s final settlement price.
  • NJBIA Launches “Rethink RGGI” - The New Jersey Business and Industry Association (NJBIA) recently launched a “Rethink RGGI” awareness campaign to promote a policy solution that would lower energy costs for New Jersey consumers, improve the state’s air quality, and maintain reinvestment dollars in state clean energy and environmental programs.  The NJBIA proposes a solution to suspend New Jersey’s involvement in RGGI allowance auctions and to replace it with a flat, $7-per-ton fee on all generator emissions in the state.  According to the NJBIA, assuming a $29 per ton cost, this proposal would yield direct consumer savings of $279 million on New Jersey energy bills annually, 5 million fewer tons of carbon emissions annually, and $135 million in state allowance revenues annually.  The legislature established a $7‑per‑ton threshold as a trigger to review RGGI if prices ever reached that level, recognizing that figure would present affordability and potential carbon dioxide leakage issues.  The $7-per-ton fee could replace current RGGI prices through executive order or legislation.  The Sherrill Administration and legislators have publicly acknowledged concerns over the sharply rising cost of RGGI credits - $24.99 per ton in the March 2026 auction and projected to be as high as $40 in the June auction.  No executive order has been proposed.  Two pieces of identical legislation (A4819 and S2463) have been introduced to remove New Jersey from RGGI completely, although both bills are sponsored by Republicans and not expected to receive consideration in the Democrat-controlled Assembly or Senate. 

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices were unchanged over the past week amid somewhat benign cooling demand, slightly lower natural gas production as well as lower LNG exports due to some lingering maintenance on the plants.  Gas storage inventories are ample at this point of injection season, being 5% above the 5-year average.  A cooling trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift toward the mid-continent this week, while a building ridge develops over the eastern United States. This pattern will bring hot and humid conditions to the eastern half of the nation, though it will also come with an increased risk of thunderstorms.  The forward electricity prices for the 2027-2030 strips were unchanged over the past week and were 3-4% lower over the past month.  The final day-ahead settlement price for May in COMED is $28.72/MWh which is 18% higher than April’s final settlement price, while in AdHub that price is $39.66/MWh or -13% lower than the previous month.  In Michigan, the final settlement price for May is $34.06/MWh or -16% lower than the April average, while in Ameren that average final price for the month is $29.88/MWh or is unchanged compared to April.
  • Illinois Governor Pauses New Data Center Tax Incentives; Signals Broader Regulatory Framework - On 6/5, Governor Pritzker directed the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity to stop processing new agreements, including tax credits, under the state’s Data Center Investment Program beginning 7/1, following the General Assembly's failure to advance comprehensive data center legislation during the spring session.  The action does not affect previously approved projects but effectively places a hold on new applications while the administration develops a broader policy framework for responsible data center development.  The Governor's announcement builds on positions he first outlined during his February budget address that included a two-year suspension of new data center tax incentives amid growing concerns about electricity demand, grid reliability, energy affordability, water usage, and community impacts associated with large-scale data center development. 

Northeast Energy Summary

  • ISO New England expects the region to have sufficient resources to meet peak electricity demand this summer, with available capacity of roughly 29 GW (29,000 MW) compared to projected peak demand of about 25.2 GW under normal conditions and up to 26.5 GW during extreme heat. While reliability risks could emerge during prolonged heat waves, particularly if paired with unexpected generator outages, grid operators have a range of tools—including dispatching reserves, increasing imports, and leveraging demand response—to maintain system balance. The resource mix continues to evolve, with recent additions such as the NECEC transmission line, Vineyard Wind, and battery storage improving system flexibility, while growing behind-the-meter solar (now exceeding 8 GW) is expected to reduce peak demand by more than 1.7 GW and shift peak load into the early evening hours. Overall, enhanced weather-driven modeling and seasonal planning indicate the region is well positioned entering the summer, though operating conditions could tighten under stressed scenarios. The forecast peak demand remains below the region’s all-time summer peak of 28,130 MW set on August 2, 2006. 
  • New England forward energy prices continue their volatile ways while persistent uncertainty from the Strait of Hormuz "closure" has kept global natural gas and oil pricing supportive. While we are seeing choppiness in trading and some lower days of pricing, overall trends continue to climb with higher highs and higher lows. On top of this primary risk, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) allowance also continue to move in a very unpredictable manner. Mix in a stretch of hot weather for the region this weekend and energy procurement risks seem unrelenting. Customers are encouraged to reach out to their Constellation contact to stay abreast of the evolving market environment and develop a strategy to mitigate such risks.
  • On May 28 New York’s State Fiscal Year 2026-27 budget, totaling $268.1 billion, was enacted nearly two months after the April 1 deadline. Key issues during the session included consumer affordability, proposed changes to the state’s climate law, the reliability and cost implications of data centers, and new nuclear moratorium proposals. Before the session adjourned, lawmakers approved legislation imposing a one-year moratorium on new permits for large-scale data center facilities exceeding 20 MW, citing affordability, reliability, and consumer concerns. The bill also establishes renewable and labor standards, requires energy efficiency measures and host community benefits, and directs the Department of Environmental Conservation to prepare an environmental impact report.
  • On June 1, NYPA launched a competitive Request for Qualifications (RFQ) process to identify developers for at least 1 GW of new advanced nuclear capacity in upstate New York, and opened a $40 million workforce training initiative to support future project development.  The solicitation signals the state’s intent to move forward with new, advanced nuclear development alongside Governor Hochul’s Nuclear Reliability Backbone initiative, announced earlier this year. State leaders are framing the initiative as essential to meeting rising electricity demand, maintaining reliability, advancing clean energy goals, and helping contain long-term consumer costs.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • The region’s weather pattern will undergo a notable transition this week, as a strengthening upper-level ridge muscles in shifting temperatures higher along the entire Pacific Coast. The result is above- to much-above-normal temperatures across central California, where many cities like Sacramento, Fresno, and Bakersfield will register their first 100-degree readings this year —coinciding with your author’s first summertime trip to the Central Valley on Thursday — and arriving slightly ahead of climatological averages that should put those first triple-digit days in the third week of the month. As the ridge intensifies and reorients over the Gulf of Alaska and into Western Canada, the heat signal will migrate northward, delivering a short but potent burst of record-challenging heat to the Pacific Northwest. Peak temperatures are expected from Sunday through Tuesday, with Seattle in the low- to mid-80s and Portland in the low- to mid-90s. This will really drive additional melt at higher elevations and eat into the remaining snowpack. Looking out a couple weeks there is a near- to above-normal lean across the West, but no signal of sustained or extreme heat.
  • California’s natural gas market remains structurally constrained, with storage saturation — not supply scarcity — driving daily balancing challenges. PG&E faced High Operational Flow Order (OFO) conditions Friday and Saturday as mild temperatures and abundant renewable generation left molecules without a downstream home, and the utility subsequently issued a Stage 2 High OFO for the 5th at $1.00/Dth, its second such event of the week. SoCalGas, meanwhile, has settled into a near-daily High OFO cadence, reflecting limited gas-fired power sector pull and an Aliso Canyon facility that has effectively reached the limits of its storage capability. The underlying issue is well established: a mild winter left storage caverns at a healthy starting point, and the lack of thermal generation needs through the spring forced injections putting the majority of storage caverns at end-of-summer — and in some cases, early-winter — levels. With minimal space in the cupboards, Local Distribution Companies (LDCs) have little choice but to hit the High OFO button to push transport volume back upstream toward producing zones. The midweek heat this week seen in Sacramento touching 103° and Burbank reaching 85°, will lift demand and create some room for gas absorption. The obvious question is how will the region fare through a summer of this, given the increase in solar buildout over the last year, imports via the SunZia line, and increased inflows of hydro generation from the Pacific Northwest fleet?
  • Curtailments. Something that CAISO dispatchers have had to increasingly deal with as a massive increase in solar generation and imports from the SunZia wind project are swamping the grid. Solar expansion has continued at a strong rate so far in 2026. We’ve seen the hourly profile push higher through the year, setting new output records a couple times in May, the most recent hitting 22,669 MW, an increase of nearly 2 GW over spring of last yr. The overgeneration situation has been exacerbated by surging solar in the Desert Southwest; the early melt of higher-elevation snowpack in the Pacific Northwest that has converted a slightly below-normal Water Year into something closer to normal; and no demand externally for CAISO’s excess renewable generation. The hope that storage would be able to mitigate the worst of the midday oversupply issues has dimmed, at least for the time being, as new CAISO batteries have not ramped at the same pace as supply. Dispatchers have responded by boosting renewable curtailments through the spring. Year-to-date solar curtailments skyrocketed during May, jumping from even with 2025 levels with around 2.3 TWh at the beginning of May to a whopping 3.7 TWh by the beginning of June, already surpassing full year 2025 totals by 5%. Curtailments mean dispatchers have run out of mitigation options. The bright side of this situation has been for the index energy buyer as midday prices have often cleared below the $0 MWh waterline in SP15 and in the single digits at NP15. For the day ahead index energy buyer thus far in Q2, this has yielded an average NP15 clearing price of $8.40 MWh and $4.89 at SP15, which, respectively, is roughly what a gallon of diesel and less than what a gallon of regular costs at the pump these days.

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