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Weekly Energy Industry Summary

Commodity Fundamentals

Week of November 3, 2025

By The Numbers:

  • Prompt-month NYMEX natural gas settled at $4.27/MMbtu, up $.14 on Monday, November 3.
  • Prompt-month crude oil settled at $61.05/bbl., up $.07 on Monday, November 3.

Natural Gas Fundamentals - Neutral

  • Prompt-month (December 2025) natural gas settled at $4.27/MMbtu on Monday.
  • Year-to-date, the December 2025 gas futures contract has averaged $4.43/MMbtu.
  • Year-to-date, the December 2025 gas futures contract traded at a high of $5.46/MMbtu on March 11 (2025), and a low of $3.64 on October 16.
  • Prospectively, December 2025 is trading below its year-to-date average and well below its year-to-date high.
  • Production remains strong.  Month-to-date gas production averaged 107.4 Bcf per day versus 101 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Power generation demand month-to-date averaged 28.2 Bcf per day versus 32.2 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Residential/Commercial demand averaged 23.2 Bcf per day month-to-date versus 18.7 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Industrial demand is flat year-over-year for November at 23.7 Bcf per day.
  • LNG exports month-to-date averaged 17.4 Bcf per day versus 11.7 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Exports to Mexico averaged 5.9 Bcf per day month-to-date versus 5.5 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
  • Storage will be very near record-level full.
  • Pricing action will be extremely sensitive to weather forecasts.

Crude Oil - Neutral

  • NYMEX (WTI) prompt-month crude settled at $61.05/bbl., on Monday, up $.07.
  • OPEC continues to increase output.
  • The market is well supplied.
  • U.S. production of crude continues at 13.6 million barrels per day.
  • U.S. crude oil producers are less than happy about oil near $60.
  • Lower crude oil prices are generally bullish of natural gas, all other things being equal.

Economy - Neutral

  • The Supreme Court will hear arguments on whether President Trump exceeded his authority regarding tariffs.
  • The meeting between Trump and Xi concluded with an agreement aimed at easing trade tensions. The U.S. agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese goods to 47% but is contingent on China's commitment to curb fentanyl production. China agreed to resume the purchase of U.S. soybeans, increase energy imports and suspend export restrictions on rare-earth minerals.
  • Government economic data continues to be largely suspended during the continuing shut down.

Weather - Neutral

  • A warm up in the Midwest is in store this week.
  • Temperatures in the Midwest and Great Lakes Region will take a move down next week with lows in the upper 20s forecast for next Monday and Tuesday. Things warm up a bit by next Thursday. Generally, November is "seasonal" in many key consuming markets. Anomalies are not extreme but the first half of the month is trending "cooler" relative to the ten-year average.

Weekly Natural Gas Report:

 
  • Inventories of natural gas in underground storage for the week ending October 24  are 3,882 Bcf; an injection of 74 Bcf was reported for the week ending October 24.
  • Gas inventories are 171 Bcf above the five-year average and 29 Bcf more than the same time last year. 
Values reflect week ending Oct. 31, 2025
Prices reflect week ending Oct. 31 2025

Weekly Power Report:

Mid-Atlantic Electric Summary

  • The Mid-Atlantic Region’s forward power prices continue to find price support from cooler weather forecasts despite consistently bearish drivers like strong production and natural gas storage inventory surpluses.  Natural gas futures went above a 7-month high on Monday and has rallied higher for the past four sessions.  The market seems to be looking past the slow start to winter in November, to colder expectations in December.  As has been the case over the past few months, the most persistent warmer-than-normal anomalies remain centered over the Plains and Rockies, with greater variability in the East and West.  Over the weekend, there was an increase in heating degree days due to a stronger cold front expected to move across the eastern United States early next week.  Forward power prices for the 2026-2030 terms were 3% higher, on average, week-over-week and 7% higher over the past month.  The preliminary, day-ahead settlement price average in West Hub for the month of October is $51.08/MWh, which is 23% higher than last September's average and 44% higher than a year ago.
  • DOE Renews Order for Continued Operation of Wagner Unit 4 at PJM’s Request - On 10/24, the Secretary of Energy issued an order under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, authorizing continued operation of Wagner Unit 4 beyond its existing operating limit under specific conditions. Like the previous order, this renewal allows PJM to dispatch the unit beyond its agreed-upon run-hour limit when needed to meet demand - specifically during a Maximum Generation Alert or a Transmission Security Emergency. In its 10/10 renewal request, PJM noted that Wagner Unit 4 has been dispatched more frequently in 2025 compared to the previous year, and only about 80 fuel-burning hours remain for the rest of the calendar year. This limited availability allows for just three additional starts if the unit runs for its minimum required duration each time. The renewed order took effect at 12:45 PM EDT on October 26, 2025, and will remain in place for 90 days, expiring at 12:00 AM EST on January 1, 2026.

Great Lakes Electric Summary

  • The Great Lakes Region’s forward power prices continue to find price support from cooler weather forecasts despite consistently bearish drivers like strong production and natural gas storage inventory surpluses.  Natural gas futures went above a 7-month high on Monday and has rallied higher for the past four sessions.  The market seems to be looking past the slow start to winter in November, to colder expectations in December.  As has been the case over the past few months, the most persistent warmer-than-normal anomalies remain centered over the Plains and Rockies, with greater variability in the East and West.  Over the weekend, there was an increase in heating degree days due to a stronger cold front expected to move across the eastern United States early next week.  Forward power prices for the 2026-2030 terms were 2% higher, on average, week-over-week and 8% higher over the past month.  The preliminary, day-ahead settlement price average in COMED for the month of October is $34.74/MWh, which is 6% lower than in September, while for AdHub that price is $48.75/MWh, which is 23% higher than the prior month.  In Michigan the preliminary, day-ahead settlement price average is $39.97/MWh which is right on par with September’s price, while in Ameren the settlement price of $35.16/MWh is -9% lower than it was the prior month.
  • Governors Call for Federal Action on Permitting Reform to Speed Power Buildout - On 10/28, a bipartisan coalition of 13 governors led by Pennsylvania Democrat Josh Shapiro and Oklahoma Republican Kevin Stitt sent a letter to Congress urging passage of comprehensive legislation addressing permitting reform.  The letter laid out a series of recommendations in five broad categories to help to speed up the construction of new energy production, transmission, and pipeline projects.  The categories included: (1) Streamlining Federal agency reviews; (2) Reforming the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), including designating FERC as the lead agency for federal transmission review and limiting judicial review; (3) Reforms to Interstate Energy Transmission, including recommendations to address enhancing electric transmission, improving RTO’s/ISO’s, and additional reforms; (4) Reforms to Nuclear Energy Regulation, including nuclear specific NEPA reforms, licensing improvements and other policy recommendations; and (5) Clean Water Act reforms specifically looking for better State/Federal alignment along with improved procedures.

Northeast Energy Summary

  • During the October 15/16 NEPOOL Markets Committee (MC) meeting, ISO-NE outlined its proposal to shift the capacity market from an annual to a seasonal format as part of its Capacity Auction Reform (CAR).  As part of this transition, ISO-NE plans to determine a resource’s Maximum Capacity (MCap) based on its highest energy output over the past three years.  For summer, this would be measured during periods when temperatures exceeded 80°F or during ISO-NE’s open audit windows.  For winter, the MCap would reflect peak output when temperatures were below 32°F or during winter audit windows.  The qualified capacity a resource can offer in the auction will be calculated by multiplying its MCap by its Marginal Reliability Impact.
  • ISO-NE also proposed updates to the calculation of Equivalent Forced Outage Rate on Demand (EFORd) to align with the seasonal market design.  Rather than relying on NERC benchmarks, ISO-NE will use season-specific historical data and calculate New England-specific averages for resource classes.  ISO-NE expects that most resources will show only minor differences between their annual and seasonal EFORd values. Additionally, ISO-NE introduced its accreditation methodology for thermal, non-energy-limited resources.  These include nuclear, non-intermittent hydro, municipal solid waste, wood-burning, and landfill/biogas facilities.  Certain oil, jet fuel, kerosene, and dual-fuel units may also be classified as non-energy-limited thermal resources, depending on their characteristics.  These resources will be modeled using three key parameters: Maximum Capability, EFORd, and maintenance requirements.  ISO-NE will review its proposed requirements for resources to be deemed non-energy-limited at the November MC meeting. Next month, ISO-NE’s consultant Analysis Group will review a study of gas availability in the region and ISO will discuss modeling and accreditation for oil-only and dual-fuel resources.
  • ISO-NE continues to make incremental adjustments to the prompt auction design to reduce stakeholder opposition ahead of the upcoming CAR-Prompt and Deactivation filing with FERC.  These changes aim to minimize controversy surrounding the initial phase of the CAR initiative, given the urgency of establishing rules well before the 2028/29 commitment period.  ISO-NE plans to seek votes on the prompt auction design and associated deactivation tariff revisions at the November 12-13 Markets Committee and December 4 Participants Committee meetings, with the goal of filing with FERC by year-end and targeting a March 2026 effective date.
  • On October 30, the New York Power Authority (NYPA) released two requests for information (RFIs) as part of its initiative to develop 1 GW of advanced nuclear energy. The first RFI invites upstate New York communities to express interest in hosting an advanced nuclear project developed by NYPA.  The second RFI seeks input from potential development partners with expertise in the development, construction, operation, or servicing of nuclear power facilities. These solicitations follow a directive issued by Governor Kathy Hochul in June to establish a minimum of 1 GW of advanced nuclear capacity in upstate New York.  
  • Public comments were filed on October 20 addressing the New York State Department of Public Service (DPS) staff’s proposal to extend the New York Zero Emissions Credit (ZEC) program. The proposal originates from the PSC’s May order directing DPS staff to submit a whitepaper evaluating how a continued ZEC program should be structured past its expiration in 2029. DPS filed the whitepaper in July, noting the economic and environmental significance of the current nuclear fleet and recommending a 20-year extension with similar rate-setting methodology, adjusted over time for inflation through 2049. Public comments were subsequently solicited to inform the Commission’s pending decision.  Governor Hochul’s administration supports the extension, citing nuclear energy as relevant for meeting state climate targets, while some environmental groups have expressed opposition, favoring investments in renewables and storage instead.  The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) also supports the extension, stating that program cost (approximately $5.5 billion from 2029 to 2050, or $3.3 billion net present value) is outweighed by anticipated ratepayer savings. NYSERDA estimates that electric-system costs would increase by $15 billion if the nuclear plants retire, requiring over 16 gigawatts of new zero-emission generation and storage as replacements.  NYPA supports the extension as well, noting that new renewables reduce emissions at a cost more than six times higher than ZECs. NYPA argues that the current capacity and environmental attributes of existing nuclear generation are not readily replicable by alternative sources.

ERCOT Energy Summary

CAISO, Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest Energy Summary

  • Very warm temperatures were seen over the weekend across the West, none more impressive than Denver on Sunday which hit a high of 83° and broke not only the daily record (78°) but also set a new warmest November day ever toppling the old record of 81°. The broad warmth will continue across the West favoring a very mild first half of the month with the warmest of the above averages sitting on top of the interior West and Rockies, while the major coastal cities in California all track in the slightly above average category.
  • Power demand will not be as strong as last week, but CAISO has seen thermal outages creep up in recent days. This has contributed to increased heat rates, despite low-to-average outright demand. The CAISO day-ahead auction results for Monday brought the peak period averages closer together as the SP15 discount to NP15 averaged $6.07, which is the lowest Monday settle for the past two months. That discount had been tracking in the low-teens towards $20 level driven more by the combination of low demand and robust midday solar generation crushing the SP15 side of the equation. But SP15 prices will find support in a new restriction that hit SoCalGas's system last week when they posted an alert that work is going to restrict Line 4000 to 1.0 Bcf which is a 0.62 Bcf cut to flow capacity. Apparently, inspections revealed portions of the line are not up to Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHSMA) specs so work is set to run from November 1 to December 18. This should keep SoCal city gate prices at current levels along with the added support of recent strength in NYMEX prices, the ongoing maintenance work at both Palo Verde 3 and Diablo Cyn 2 (PV3 is slated to return late this week) and ongoing efforts to top off Aliso Cyn heading into the heating season.
  • There are some indications in the weather outlook that suggest an increase in heating demand by mid-month which will be the first test of the natural gas grid for winter demand. One advantage CAISO dispatchers have this year is an increase in battery capacity that has risen from 12 GW in late 2024 and is expected to hit 15.5 GW by the end of this year. As a data point, the growth in storage has been matched by the steady expansion of behind-the-meter solar; within CAISO the grid has averaged 140 MW of new build each month over the last couple of years.
  • Since new nuclear is verboten in the state unless the state’s constitution is changed and the CAISO desperately needs new baseload generation, California’s Governor-who-is-now-considering-a-run-for-the-Presidency signed Senate Bill 80 into law in late October, establishing the Fusion Research and Development Innovation Initiative and creating a dedicated fund to accelerate fusion breakthroughs and commercialization. Building on the state’s leadership as home to both the DIII-D National Fusion Facility and Lawrence Livermore’s National Ignition Facility, San Diego is slated to become a fusion hub, as General Atomics has collaborated with UC San Diego to launch the San Diego Fusion Data Science and Digital Engineering Center that leverages AI and high-performance computing to accelerate innovation. The legislation represents California’s declaration of intent to transform scientific progress into commercial power generation, with stakeholders asserting that “the nation that realizes fusion first will define the energy future of humankind.”

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